MLB Run Line Picks Today – Dodgers vs. Brewers Run Line Bet: Back L.A. Ace Tony Gonsolin

OddsJam’s MLB expert @ShayneTrail dives into the top run line pick he’s eyeing. Find his bet and prediction below.

Dodgers vs. Brewers Betting Odds

8:10 p.m. ET

Today the biggest pitching mismatch goes in favor of the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Milwaukee Brewers will send out Eric Lauer. Coming into today, Lauer is 8-4 with a 3.64 ERA — but the worse has yet to come.

He has an expected ERA of 4.12. His struggles are stemming from his secondary pitches — his curveball and slider. He throws both over 70% of the time. Both have an expected batting average of .322 and .317.

Lauer’s fastball is his best pitch, but it’s not that proficient. His fastball velocity ranks in the 32nd percentile and in the 65th percentile in spin rate. These Dodgers bats should take advantage of this weak fastball and get to Lauer’s secondary pitches early.

The Dodgers will counter with their ace in Tony Gonsolin. Coming into today, Gonsolin is 14-1 with a 2.24 ERA. He has been a great fill-in for Walker Buehler this season. The secondary pitches for Gonsolin — the split-finger and the slider — are both being held for under .130 averages. That is remarkable.

The Dodgers are hot in August they are 14-2 in the last 16 games played this month alone. Milwaukee is just 3-9 in its last 12 games played against a National League opponent. With the significant mismatch in the Dodger’s favor and the Dodgers being one of the best teams in August, we will ride the Dodgers today on the run line against the Brewers.

Dodgers vs. Brewers Run Line Pick: Dodgers -1.5 | -105 at DraftKings