MLB Run Line Picks Today – Brewers vs. Pirates Run Line Bet: Lay the Points With Brewers as Road Favorites

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Shayne TrailAugust 2, 2022 at 06:49 PM

OddsJam’s MLB expert @ShayneTrail dives into the top run line pick he’s eyeing. Find his bet and prediction below.

Brewers vs. Pirates Betting Odds

7:10 p.m. ET

Today, the biggest pitching mismatch goes in favor of the Milwaukee Brewers. The Pittsburgh Pirates will send out 24-year-old Bryse Wilson.

Coming into this matchup, Wilson is just 1-6 with a whopping 6.31 ERA, paired with a 1.60 WHIP. Statistically, Wilson really is this bad. He has an expected ERA of 5.67, which places him firmly in the bottom 5% of the league.

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On top of that, he has an expected batting average against of .301, which is in the bottom 2% of the league. It all stems from his four-seam fastball he throws over 26% of the time that hitters hit for an amazing .373 average.

On the other side of this game, the Brewers will send out their ace Corbin Burnes. Coming into today he is 8-4 with a 2.31 ERA. Burnes’ success is coming from his secondary pitches.

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His curveball, which he throws 18% of the time, and his slider, which he throws over 10% of the time, are both being hit for under .150 averages.

A trend that we cannot ignore is that the Brewers are 22-7 in their last 29 games against the Pirates. Meanwhile, the Pirates are just 2-12 in their last 14 games overall coming into today.

Bet on Corbin Burnes on the run line today to cover with ease against this poor Pirates offense. 

Pirates vs. Brewers Run Line Pick: Brewers -1.5 | -130 at DraftKings


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