MLB Run Line Picks Today – MLB Run Line Bets

Best Daily MLB Run Line Bets Today – July 13, 2022

Reds vs. Yankees Run Line Pick: Yankees -1.5 | -160 at DraftKings

7:10 p.m. ET

The biggest pitcher mismatch today belongs to the New York Yankees. Luis Severino has been nothing short of phenomenal this season, sitting at 5-3 with a 1.02 WHIP.

Severino owns some stellar splits for a starting pitcher. His xERA of 2.79 is top 26% in MLB. He also ranks in the 86th percentile for expected batting average. His favorite pitch is his fastball, which is only being hit for a lousy .200 average. 

The Cincinnati Reds will counter with 34-year-old Mike Minor who has had a rough year so far. Coming into today he is 1-6 with a 6.63 ERA.

He ranks in the fifth percentile for barrel percentage — that shows when he is being hit, he is being hit hard. Minor has shown in his most recent starts that he struggles facing hitters the second and third time through the order allowing a significantly higher batting average against. 

Bet on the Yankees to come out hot today after last night’s letdown. They will look to get back on their 19-3 run in their last 22 games at home. Take the Yankees on the run line today.

Previous Run Line Bets

Best Daily MLB Run Line Bets Today – July 12, 2022

Athletics vs. Rangers Run Line Pick: Athletics -1.5 | -110 at DraftKings

8:05 p.m. ET

Today, we will look to fade the Ranges and Glenn Otto. The fifth-round pick back in 2017 is not having the season he imagined. Sitting at 4-5 with a 5.26 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP, the worst has yet to come.

Otto’s xERA of 5.81 shows he can get worse. This puts him in the bottom 5% of the league for expected ERA. Not only does he have a lousy ERA, but his walk rate is also extremely poor. At 14.2%, he ranks in the bottom 4% of MLB.

Despite his north-of-5.00 ERA, his most-thrown pitch, the Sinker (throwing it 29% of the time) is only being hit for a .163. The regression is coming. With an xBA of .235, we should see his ERA rise even more.

While the Rangers are just 2-5 in their last seven games, we will ride their slump and them with Glenn Otto on the mound today.

Best Daily MLB Run Line Bets Today – July 11, 2022

Royals vs. Tigers Run Line Pick: Royals -1.5 | -110 at DraftKings

8:10 PM

Today in the second game of the doubleheader, we will fade the Detroit Tigers and Alex Faedo.

Faedo is sitting at 1-4 in 2022 and hasn’t had the success he was hoping for. His ERA is sitting just north of 5 at 5.02, but his xERA tells us it should be a little worse at 5.21. Faedo ranks poorly in nearly all major pitching categories. He ranks in the 8th percentile in average exit velocity and the 12th percentile in expected batting average.

Alex is a three-pitch pitcher, and that smaller arsenal has led hitters to see his fastball often. This has led to a .340 batting average against the pitch, making his fastball one of the worst in baseball. This is not a good recipe for success when he throws it 52.5% of the time.

The Tigers are one of the worst road teams in baseball. Detroit is just 12-25 in its last 37 road games. Bet on the Kansas City Royals to get it done at home, and fade Alex Faedo on the road today.

Best Daily MLB Run Line Bets Today – July 8, 2022

Rockies vs. Diamondbacks Run Line Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 | -120 at DraftKings

9:40 p.m. ET

Today we will look to fade Rockies starter, Chad Kuhl. Sitting at 5-5 with a 3.83 ERA, Kuhl isn’t having the success he would like. His 3.83 ERA is slightly better than his xERA at 4.08.

Unfortunately, his favorite pitch is his least effective. Throwing his sinker 39.4% of the time, hitters have had great success with a .333 average and an xBA of .355.

Throwing his worst pitch so often has made Kuhl rank at the bottom of the league in some major pitching categories. He ranks in the 14th percentile in K rate and the 30th percentile in hard-hit percentage.

The Diamondbacks will counter with their ace Zac Gallen, who’s having a phenomenal year. Fade these Rockies bats away from Coors Field along with Chad Kuhl.

Take the Diamondbacks on the run line.

Best Daily MLB Run Line Bets Today – July 7, 2022

Cubs vs. Dodgers Run Line Pick: Dodgers -1.5 | -135 at DraftKings

10:10 p.m. ET
The biggest pitching mismatch today goes to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 2016 9th-round pick Tony Gonsolin has been phenomenal for them thus far.

Sitting at an absurd 10-0 with a 1.54 ERA, he will look to continue his dominance tonight. Gonsolin ranks among the best in all major pitching categories.

Specifically, he ranks in the 94th percentile in hard-hit percentage and the 87th percentile in xBA. His split-finger fastball is his best pitch throwing it 28.2% of the time, hitters have only managed to hit for a lousy .093 average.

The Cubs will counter with 4.85 ERA Mark Leither Jr. his worst split is his road split where he holds a 7.94 road ERA.

Look for the Dodgers’ bats to provide enough run support while Gonsolin continues his 2022 success against these Cubs hitters. Take the Dodgers on the run line today.