Welcome to today’s MLB DFS Preview! We’ll be diving into each matchup on today’s slate, focusing primarily on pitching, with key insights and statistics to help you get a comprehensive understanding of what to expect. Let’s jump in!
Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates – 6:40 PM EDT – PNC Park
Starting with the Reds and Pirates, we have an interesting pitching duel on tap. Carson Spiers takes the mound for Cincinnati. His ERA over the last two seasons is 4.18, not too shabby but his 19% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate suggest some inconsistency. What’s concerning is his high xERA of 3.48 and relatively low ground ball rate of 31%.
Paul Skenes is the Pirates’ ace tonight, boasting a stellar 2.43 ERA and an impressive 35% strikeout rate. His 5% walk rate and a 51% ground ball rate indicate he’s a pitcher who can dominate.
Key Points:
Reds’ offense is inconsistent, .330 wOBA vs. LHP and .308 wOBA vs. RHP.
Pirates’ balanced attack with a .312 wOBA vs. RHP.
San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies – 6:40 PM EDT – Citizens Bank Park
Randy Vasquez’s high xERA of 5.93 and .377 xwOBA indicate trouble ahead, with an 18% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate. Cristopher Sanchez is more reliable, sporting a 3.29 ERA, and a solid 58% ground ball rate which helps him limit damage effectively.
Key Points:
Phillies’ potent offense with a .342 wOBA vs. LHP.
Padres have a decent .295 wOBA vs. LHP but face a tough pitcher in Sanchez.
St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins – 6:40 PM EDT – LoanDepot Park
Sonny Gray’s numbers are fantastic with a 2.85 ERA and a 27% strikeout rate. His 47% ground ball rate shows his ability to induce weak contact. Braxton Garrett, on the other hand, has a higher ERA of 4.06 and allows a 40% hard contact rate, which could spell trouble.
Key Points:
Cardinals’ offense .277 wOBA vs. LHP might struggle.
Marlins’ weaker offense .262 wOBA vs. RHP gives Gray the edge.
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays – 7:07 PM EDT – Rogers Centre
Nick Pivetta’s high strikeout rate of 31% is a key strength, but his 8% walk rate can be problematic. Yusei Kikuchi’s 3.67 ERA and balanced peripherals (25% K rate, 41% GB rate) make him a tough opponent.
Key Points:
Red Sox’s offense .324 wOBA vs. LHP presents a challenge for Kikuchi.
Blue Jays’ offense .291 wOBA vs. RHP, facing Pivetta’s strikeout ability.
Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves – 7:20 PM EDT – Truist Park
Reese Olson’s ERA of 3.86 and a 47% ground ball rate show he can manage games well. Max Fried is a top-tier pitcher with a 2.88 ERA and a dominant 59% ground ball rate, making him a formidable opponent.
Key Points:
Tigers’ offense .304 wOBA vs. LHP might struggle against Fried.
Braves’ strong offense .320 wOBA vs. RHP with the advantage.
New York Mets at Texas Rangers – 8:05 PM EDT – Globe Life Field
Jordan Hicks’ 3.15 ERA and 25% strikeout rate are strong, though his 10% walk rate is a concern. Javier Assad’s 2.95 ERA might be misleading given his higher xERA of 4.06.
Key Points:
Giants’ offense .344 wOBA vs. RHP, posing a challenge.
Cubs’ offense .305 wOBA vs. RHP, facing Hicks’ high strikeout rate.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies – 8:40 PM EDT – Coors Field
James Paxton’s 4.28 ERA and 5.04 xERA show some volatility. Cal Quantrill’s low strikeout rate of 15% and high hard contact rate (32%) could be a recipe for disaster at Coors Field.
Key Points:
Dodgers’ elite offense .351 wOBA vs. RHP, strong advantage.
Rockies’ strong offense .337 wOBA vs. LHP, could challenge Paxton.
Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Angels – 9:38 PM EDT – Angel Stadium
Carlos Rodriguez’s 4.91 ERA and 6.48 xERA indicate he’s been lucky. Jose Soriano’s 3.54 ERA and strong peripherals (24% K rate, 57% GB rate) give him an edge.
Key Points:
Brewers’ offense .306 wOBA vs. RHP, might struggle against Soriano.
Angels’ offense .366 wOBA vs. RHP, advantage against Rodriguez.
That wraps up our pitching-focused MLB DFS Preview for today’s slate. Stay tuned for our Top Hitters and Top Stacks article coming later today. Let’s crush it on DFS!