MLB Best Bets Today – Guardians vs. Astros – May 25, 2022

Guardians vs. Astros Pick: Cristian Javier Under 5.5 Strikeouts | -138 at FanDuel Sportsbook

8:10 p.m. ET

The “Best Bet” series is back again and looking to win our fourth bet in our last five attempts. We missed our fourth straight winner yesterday by one strikeout, but today we bounce back even stronger. There’s another pitching prop I love on this slate, as I find the line misleading. Let’s dive into it. 

Cristian Javier has only exceeded 5.5 strikeouts in ONE start this season. The Under has hit in seven of eight games. (88%). The Cleveland Guardians also have the lowest strikeout rate against RHP’s in the entire league. (19% K Rate).

Three of CLE’s hitters are striking out at less than 10% against right handed pitching. (Ramirez, Kwan and Naylor). Javier does not have a versatile pitching arsenal, so he resorts to the slider as his primary strikeout pitch.

Only two CLE hitters have whiff rates of 35%+ against right handed sliders, and Javier’s slider only has a 30% whiff rate itself. This data, recent history and matchup screams under to me, and Vegas was generous enough to add an extra strikeout to the line. This line should be 4.5, so let’s take advantage and win another “Best Bet”!