MLB Best Bets Today – Brewers vs. Cardinals – May 26, 2022

Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: Eric Lauer Under 5.5 Strikeouts | -118 at FanDuel Sportsbook

7:45 p.m. ET

We are back with another episode of the “Best Bet” series. This is an interesting play, and may be hated by the public. Eric Lauer has been electric this season, with a 31% K rate, so why are we targeting his under? Let’s dig deeper.

Eric Lauer is seeing a massive increase in efficiency this season, from 24% K rate last season to 31% this season. Has he Improved? Definitely. Is he due for regression? Definitely. The Cardinals have a 23% K rate against LHP this season, which is the second lowest in the MLB. Lauer has thrown for 6 or more strikeouts four times this season and crushed this number when he has, but let’s take a look at who he did this against.

These four performances were against the Marlins, Braves, Phillies and Cubs. Three of those four teams rank top 10 in the MLB in most strikeouts vs. LHP. The fourth team ranks around middle of the pack at 18th. In two starts against teams ranking 20th or lower (Least K’s) Lauer is 0 for 2 hitting this over. The Cardinals rank 4th in runs, 3rd in hits, and 3rd in batting average.

This implies there is a likelihood Lauer has his struggles today. In fact, the Cardinals are averaging 4.5 runs per game against division rival MIL this season. I think it’s likely Lauer gets in the 4-5 strikeout range today, but fails to ring up number six. Let’s trust the data and cash another ticket.