MLB Best Bets Friday 10/18/24

It’s playoff time, and we have two crucial matchups on the docket for today’s MLB slate. Playoff baseball is always unpredictable, but with the right insights, we can navigate these tight matchups and find some value. Below are today’s best bets, backed by key insights into the matchups, pitching performances, and player props.

Let’s break down the two games and highlight the bets I’m confident in for today.

1. Dodgers vs. Mets (Game 5)

Suggested Bet: Dodgers Moneyline

• Pitching Matchup: David Peterson (Mets) vs. Jack Flaherty (Dodgers)The Dodgers have proven to be the better team throughout this series, and they’ve shown dominance in the later innings, which gives them the edge again in this Game 5. Flaherty hasn’t been consistently dominant, but he’s coming off a strong start against the Mets earlier in the series (7 innings, 2 hits, 0 earned runs, 6 strikeouts). That level of form gives the Dodgers a clear advantage on the mound.Key Insights:
  • Flaherty’s 25% K rate against the current Mets lineup and his ability to shut down this roster previously is a big plus.
  • The Mets’ offense has been inconsistent, and despite some solid outings from David Peterson, the Dodgers’ bats have been on fire—scoring a combined 18 runs in their last two wins.
  Why the Dodgers Moneyline?
  • The Dodgers’ late-inning bullpen has been lights out, and their offense has outclassed the Mets in critical moments.
  • Peterson’s numbers against the Dodgers aren’t great, and LA’s lineup is dangerous up and down, even against left-handed pitching.

2. Yankees vs. Guardians (Game 4)

Suggested Bet: Yankees Team Total Over 3.5

• Pitching Matchup: Gavin Williams (Guardians) vs. Luis Gil (Yankees)Gavin Williams has had a rough go at home this season with a 1.7 WHIP and an opponent batting average of .309. This sets up nicely for the Yankees’ offense, which has been consistent throughout the series, scoring 5 or more runs in all three games so far.Key Insights:
  • The Yankees’ offense has been clicking, with key contributions from both the top and bottom of their lineup.
  • Luis Gil hasn’t been dominant, but his stuff is electric enough to keep the Guardians at bay long enough for the Yankees’ bats to take over.
  • In three straight games, the Yankees have hit the over, and there’s no reason to believe their offense slows down against Williams, who struggles with control.
  Why Yankees Team Total Over 3.5?
  • Williams’ struggles at home combined with the Yankees’ ability to capitalize on runners in scoring position make this a solid play.
  • The Yankees have scored 5 or more runs in all three games of this series, showing consistency and depth in their lineup.

Top Player Prop: Francisco Alvarez (Mets) Over 0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Alvarez has burned us in the past, but today’s spot against Flaherty could be different. Flaherty has shown some vulnerability to right-handed hitters this season, and Alvarez has the potential to be a key part of the Mets’ offense if they’re going to put up a fight.

Key Insights:

• Flaherty’s numbers against righties show higher ERA, WHIP, and home runs per nine innings.
• Alvarez is coming off a solid game in the previous matchup, and he’s due for another big performance with the Mets fighting to stay alive.

Why Alvarez Over 0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs?

• It only takes one hit, run, or RBI to cash this prop, and Alvarez is in a good spot to contribute against Flaherty’s mixed form against righties.
• With the Mets’ backs against the wall, look for them to lean on their young talent.

Top Player Prop: Bryan Rocchio (Guardians) Over 0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Rocchio has been on fire in the postseason, and this matchup against Luis Gil gives him another chance to shine. Rocchio has 8 hits, runs, and RBIs combined in this series, and his ability to hit right-handed pitching is a big plus.

Key Insights:

• Gil’s fastball/slider combo has been effective, but Rocchio’s ability to put the ball in play and create scoring opportunities makes this prop appealing.
• Rocchio has consistently contributed in key moments, and this is another spot for him to get on base and drive in or score a run.

Why Rocchio Over 0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs?

• Rocchio’s recent form is undeniable, and it’s hard to ignore his impact in these games. He’s been one of the Guardians’ most reliable hitters.
• The prop line of just 0.5 is low considering how much Rocchio has been involved in this series.

Final Thoughts

These are the best bets for today’s MLB playoff slate. Whether you’re riding with the Dodgers, expecting a Yankees offensive explosion, or leaning into player props, there’s value to be found on this exciting day of baseball.

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