MLB Best Bets ALCS Game 5

Today’s MLB slate brings us Game 5 of the ALCS between the New York Yankees and the Cleveland Guardians. The series has been competitive, with both teams showing flashes of dominance, but now it’s do-or-die.

With this in mind, we have some top bets for today’s action, focusing on key matchups, pitching performances, and trends from the series so far.

Top MLB Bets for Today

1. Yankees Moneyline

• Suggested Bet: Yankees ML
• Analysis:
  • The Yankees are coming off an impressive Game 4 win, which seems to have shifted the momentum in their favor. With Carlos Rodón on the mound, the Yankees have a reliable veteran who has a strong track record against Cleveland’s lineup.
  • In this series, Rodón has maintained excellent control, holding opposing hitters to a .193 batting average over 92 plate appearances. His expected metrics further back his potential to deliver a standout performance today:
    • Expected Batting Avg: .223
    • Expected Weighted On-Base Avg (xwOBA): .295
    • Strikeout Rate: 21%
    • Walk Rate: 6%
  • The Yankees’ bats have been clicking, scoring at least four runs in every game of the series. They’ve been capitalizing on Cleveland’s weaker bullpen, especially in late innings.
• Key Points:
  • Better pitching advantage with Rodón.
  • Momentum after Game 4 win.
  • Strong offensive production throughout the series.

2. Yankees Team Total Over 3.5 Runs

• Suggested Bet: Yankees Team Total Over 3.5 Runs
• Analysis:
  • The Yankees have exceeded this total in each game of the series, even in the game they lost. With their offensive depth, expect the Yankees to maintain pressure on Cleveland’s pitching staff, particularly given Tanner Bibee’s struggles:
    • Bibee lasted just 1 1/3 innings in his previous start, allowing two earned runs and failing to control the Yankees’ potent lineup.
  • Rodón’s ability to keep Cleveland’s bats in check puts the Yankees in position to build a lead and force Cleveland into using its bullpen earlier, which can only help the Yankees score more.
• Key Points:
  • Consistency: Yankees have hit this total every game in the series.
  • Bibee’s recent struggles and bullpen vulnerability.
  • Yankees’ lineup depth creates multiple scoring opportunities.

3. No Runs First Inning (NRFI)

• Suggested Bet: No Runs First Inning (NRFI)
• Analysis:
  • Rodón has been reliable in the early innings, achieving a 60% hit rate for no runs allowed in the first inning over his last 10 starts. He managed a NERFY in Game 2 of this series and looks poised to do so again.
  • Bibee’s first-inning struggles are a concern, but he may find a brief rhythm today with his team’s season on the line. Both pitchers should come out motivated, making the first inning a good spot to bet on a scoreless start.
• Key Points:
  • Rodón’s track record of limiting runs early.
  • Pressure on Bibee to deliver in a must-win game.
  • Both pitchers motivated to avoid early trouble.

4. Steven Kwan Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBI

• Suggested Bet: Steven Kwan Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBI
• Analysis:
  • Kwan has been a consistent force at the plate, averaging 2.6 combined hits, runs, and RBIs over his last 10 games. Against left-handed pitchers like Rodón, Kwan thrives:
    • Batting Avg vs. LHP: .319 (compared to .292 overall)
    • Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+): 144 vs. LHP, a 15-point jump from his overall wRC+.
  • Kwan has hit this mark in three of the four games this series, showing that he can deliver even when Cleveland’s offense isn’t firing on all cylinders.
• Key Points:
  • Kwan’s success against left-handed pitching.
  • Consistent production in this series.
  • Lower odds (-105), providing solid value.

Final Thoughts

The Yankees hold the advantage heading into today’s decisive game, but expect the Guardians to fight hard to keep their postseason hopes alive. Each of these bets has been carefully selected based on current form, pitching matchups, and recent trends.

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