Mets vs. Yankees Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions – August 22, 2022: Target Team Total in New York Showdown

Ready to lock in your MLB bets? OddsJam’s MLB expert breaks down his top pick and prediction for today’s slate. Find the bet @BalesSJustin is eyeing below.

Mets vs. Yankees Betting Odds

7:05 p.m. ET

The New York Yankees will host Max Scherzer and the New York Mets in Yankee Stadium tonight. I’m backing an elite arm against a struggling offense, even in a hitter-friendly stadium. 

Scherzer has been throwing at an elite level this season. He boasts a 9-2 record with a 2.15 ERA through 17 starts. His success is backed by a dominant 3.27 xFIP as well. 

The right-hander has always been a flyball pitcher, and he enters this game with a 51.5% flyball rate in 2022. He’s held his opponents to a career-best 0.66 HR/9, though. He also boasts an elite 31.4% strikeout rate, allowing him to work his way out of tough situations. Furthermore, Scherzer doesn’t give his opponents free passes, as he owns an outstanding 4.7% walk rate this season. 

Scherzer has quietly been a dominant option on the road this season. His strikeout rate increases to 33.6%, while his xFIP dips to only 3.04. The right-hander has struggled at times against left-handed batters, although that isn’t going to be a major concern for this matchup. 

He has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 13 of his 17 starts this season. He’s held his opponents scoreless in four of those games as well. 

Scherzer gets a great matchup against a struggling Yankees offense. New York currently ranks 27th in the MLB in team wOBA (.269) and slugging percentage (.330) over the last 14 days. They’re also striking out at the fourth-highest rate (27.2%) in the league over that span. 

The Yankees have struggled to produce offensively for significantly longer than that, though. They rank 24th in the league in average (.225) and 18 in slugging percentage (.382) and OPS (.688) against right-handed pitching since July 16. 

New York hasn’t scored more than 2 earned runs against a right-handed starting pitcher since Logan Gilbert on August 8. Nine consecutive right-handed starters have held them to 2 or fewer earned runs. Over that span, they’re averaging only 1 earned run per start. A trio of those pitchers have held the Yankees scoreless as well. 

As if that isn’t enough, New York has scored 2 or fewer runs in six of its last eight games. They’ve been struggling for longer than that as well. 

There aren’t many players in the MLB that I’m willing to use a narrative as a reason to back them. Scherzer is one of those pitchers, though. He treats every game like the World Series, including when he was starting during his minor league rehab stint. 

He’s now throwing in his second game in the Subway Series between two of the favorites to win the World Series. In their first matchup, he held the Yankees scoreless over seven innings. It would be far from shocking to see Scherzer find similar success in this game. 

I’m expecting him to throw relatively deep into this start, meaning we’re only likely to see a couple of innings from the New York bullpen. They’ve been throwing at an elite level, ranking fifth in the MLB in xFIP (3.57) over the last 30 days. That xFIP dips to only 3.25 over the last 14 days. 

This is the type of game (and series) that the Mets can use to send a message. They’re coming into this game playing extremely well, and the Yankees have been struggling in recent weeks. I’m backing an elite starter with a dominant bullpen against a team that is getting respect based on their name value rather than their recent results.

Mets vs. Yankees Pick: Yankees Team Total Under 2.5 | +110 at DraftKings