Mets vs. Reds Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions – August 8, 2022: Mets Pitching Stays Hot

<p>AP Photos</p>

AP Photos

Ready to lock in your MLB bets? OddsJam’s MLB expert breaks down his top pick and prediction for today’s slate. Find the bet @BalesSJustin is eyeing below.

Mets vs. Reds Betting Preview:

7:10 p.m. ET

Chris Bassitt and the New York Mets will host the Cincinnati Reds at Citi Field tonight. We’re backing high-end pitching against a struggling road offense for this bet. 

Bassitt’s been enjoying an outstanding season for New York. He’s posted an 8-7 record with a 3.61 ERA through 20 starts. His success is backed by a 3.51 xFIP, which is the lowest of his career. 

Bassitt has solid strikeout stuff, as he enters this game with a 24.3% strikeout rate. He also boasts a 48.5% groundball rate in 2022, allowing him multiple ways to get out of jams. Furthermore, he’s held his opponents to 25.2% hard-hit and 22% soft-hit rates thus far.

Another key for Bassitt is that he doesn’t allow free passes, holding his opponents to a 6.6% walk rate this season. He’s given up a 1.11 HR/9 this season, which is the highest rate since 2019, and this could lower a bit as the season continues. 

Bassitt’s an elite pitcher in New York. His ERA drops to 3.06 through 64.2 home innings. This success is also backed by an outstanding 3.22 home xFIP. His strikeout rate also increases to 26.6% while his walk rate drops to only 5.5% in New York. 

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One of the most important factors for this low of a team total is Bassitt’s home run success at home. He’s given up only 6 home runs at Citi Field this season. His HR/9 dips to only 0.84, limiting the potential for one hit to beat this total tonight. 

The Mets right-hander gets a great matchup against Cincinnati tonight. They’ve seen mixed results in recent games. The Reds currently rank 12th in the MLB in team wOBA (.311) and 16th in slugging percentage (.392) over the last 14 days. 

The games are limited, but Cincinnati’s struggled on the road against right-handed pitching. The Reds rank last in the MLB in average (.170), slugging percentage (.232), and OPS (.486) on the road against righties since July 16th. They’ve scored only one earned run over the last 20 innings against right-handed starting pitchers. 

The Reds recently sold some of their offensive players at the trade deadline, and they’re giving extra time to lesser MLB players to see what they’re capable of. They don’t have tremendous power, especially for a stadium like Citi Field, meaning they’re going to have to string a few hits together to find success against the Mets. 

Bassitt should be able to throw deeper into this game tonight. If he can throw at least six innings, the Mets can rely on one of the best bullpens in baseball for the final three innings. The Mets bullpen owns a 3.19 xFIP over the last 30 days, which is the second best on this slate by a wide margin. 

The only other major concern here is that New York gets a massive lead and they use the lesser arms in their bullpen. Regardless, I’m expecting a great start from Bassitt and the bullpen should be able to handle the remainder of the game.

This is a low total, but the Reds feature arguably the worst offense in the MLB on the road against right-handed pitching.

Mets vs. Reds Pick: Cincinnati Reds Team Total Under 3  | -108 at FanDuel

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