Mets vs. Braves Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions Today – July 13, 2022

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

12:20 p.m. ET

We cashed this play with Max Fried and Max Scherzer on Monday. We went back to the well with Spencer Strider and David Peterson last night. Here we are going back to the well once again. Charlie Morton and the Atlanta Braves will host Chris Bassitt and the New York Mets today. 

Morton struggled early in the 2022 season, but he’s found plenty of success overall. He’s posted a 5-3 record with a 4.21 ERA through 17 starts. Morton’s due for some positive regression, though, as he boasts a 3.64 xFIP through 94 innings. 

The right-hander isn’t a great ground ball pitcher, as he only owns a 37.9% ground ball rate this season. He does possess a 51.9% career ground ball rate, and he can use his sinker to get double plays in tough situations. He also enters this game with a 27.3% strikeout rate, which continues to climb as the season progresses. Morton’s success comes through a 27% hard-hit rate, which is his lowest since 2017. 

The veteran pitcher is also significantly better in Atlanta this season. His strikeout rate jumps to 31% and his xFIP dips to 3.14 through 43 home innings. Surprisingly, his hard-hit rate jumps at home, but that hasn’t hurt him thus far. 

Morton’s made an elite turn in recent games, though. He posted a 4.00 or worse in 9 of his first 10 starts of the season. He’s posted an xFIP over that total in only 1 of his last 7 starts. He’s also recorded an xFIP under 2.50 in 5 of those 7 starts. He’s allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 5 consecutive starts as well. 

Morton gets a plus matchup against the New York Mets today. They currently rank 20th in the MLB in team wOBA (.301) and 18th in slugging percentage (.385) over the last 14 days. 

The Mets have found plenty of success against right-handed pitching throughout the season. They lead the league in average (.260) while ranking ninth in slugging percentage (.409) and eighth in OPS (.735). Similar to last night, I prefer their recent form without a few key bats rather than their season-long success. 

Bassitt is another pitcher that is throwing well this season. He owns a 6-6 record with a 3.94 ERA through 16 starts. Similar to Morton, he’s due for some positive regression, as he owns a 3.59 xFIP through 96 innings. 

Bassitt relies on the ground ball significantly more than Morton in his starts. He boasts a 46.4% ground ball rate this season. He also enters this game with 24.9% strikeout and 26.4% hard-hit rates, giving him multiple ways to get out of tough situations. 

There is some concern with Bassitt on the road, as he’s better at home. It isn’t a massive concern, though, as his xFIP only increases to 3.85 over 38.1 road innings. More importantly, Bassitt is a dominant pitcher against right-handed batters, which will play a major role in this matchup. 

Bassitt’s been in a weird spot where he’s faced the Miami Marlins in each of his last 3 starts, allowing them to get a great look at him. Still, he’s posted an xFIP under 4.00 in 6 of his last 7 starts, including 3 starts with an xFIP under 3.00. He hasn’t been as successful in terms of earned runs, but he’s given up 3 or fewer earned runs in each of his last 4 starts. 

The right-hander gets a tough matchup against Atlanta, who’s been playing well. They rank fifth in the MLB in team wOBA (.338) and sixth in slugging percentage (.455) over the last 14 days. 

The Braves have found success against right-handed pitching this season, but they’re better against lefties. They currently rank eighth in the league in average (.247), third in slugging percentage (.438), and sixth in OPS (.747) against righties. 

The key here is that the majority of key bats in the Atlanta lineup hit from the right side of the plate. Bassitt’s been tough on right-handed batters throughout the season, and I don’t expect that to change today. 

If either pitcher gets in trouble, both of these teams have reasonable bullpens, which we’ve seen throughout this series already. Once again, we can back high-end pitching that is being undervalued in favor of these offenses.

Mets vs. Braves Pick: Under 8  | -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook