Mets vs. Braves Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions Today – July 12, 2022

Ready to lock in your MLB bets? OddsJam’s MLB expert breaks down his top pick and prediction for today’s slate. Find the bet @BalesSJustin is eyeing below.

Mets vs. Braves Betting Preview

7:20 p.m. ET

Spencer Strider and the Atlanta Braves will host David Peterson and the New York Mets in an important divisional matchup tonight. I backed two elite arms on the under last night, and we’re grabbing the under on two underrated arms in this game. 

Strider has been one of the biggest surprises in MLB this season. He boasts a 4-2 record with a 2.60 ERA through 19 games (eight starts). His ERA is backed by an elite 2.42 xFIP as well. This ranks as one of the best in the league. 

Strider is an interesting option on the mound. He isn’t elite at getting groundballs, as he only owns a 39.4% GB rate this season. He’s also giving up a 33.3% hard-hit rate, which is surprisingly high for how well he’s pitching. Strider is able to get out of tough situations because of a ridiculous 39.1% strikeout rate. 

The right-hander has some of the most electric stuff in MLB, and he’s consistently found ways to strike out virtually anyone he faces. 

Strider has given up 2 or fewer earned runs in six of his eight starts this season. He’s also given up only 1 earned run over his last 18 innings on the mound. He’s posted 1.35, 0.94 and 2.52 xFIPs over his last three starts as well. 

He gets a great matchup against a struggling New York offense. They haven’t been striking out over the last 14 days, but they rank 19th in MLB in team wOBA (.306) and slugging percentage (.389) over that span. 

The Mets have found plenty of success against right-handed pitching this season. They currently lead the league in average (.261), while ranking ninth in slugging percentage (.410) and eighth in OPS (.737) against righties. With that being said, I favor their current form without some of their key hitters in the lineup.

David Peterson is the pitcher who is clearly undervalued in this game. He’s been enjoying an outstanding season for New York, though. He boasts a 5-1 record with a 3.48 ERA through 13 games (11 starts). He also possesses a solid 3.60 xFIP in 2022. 

Peterson has several ways to work his way out of jams. He boasts a 53.7% groundball rate, which is the most important. The left-hander also owns a career-high 25.6% strikeout rate this season. The only major concern here is his 34.6% hard-hit rate, which is roughly his career average. 

Peterson has been slightly better on the road in 2022. His xFIP dips to 3.52 through 32.2 road innings. He’s a similar pitcher against either-handedness, and I don’t expect Atlanta’s right-handed heavy lineup to be a massive issue for him. 

The Braves have been one of the hottest offenses in MLB in recent games, though. They rank sixth in both team wOBA (.342) and slugging percentage (.466) over the last 14 days. 

Atlanta also features one of the better offenses in the league against left-handed pitching. They currently rank sixth in the league in average (.259), second in slugging percentage (.459) and third in OPS (.789) against lefties this season. 

It’s reasonable to believe that Atlanta will give Peterson some issues tonight. I’m backing a solid pitcher, though, and we have quite the buffer at 8.5 runs for the total. 

If Peterson gets into early trouble, the Mets feature one of the best bullpens in the MLB. They weren’t needed much last night, and they boast a dominant 3.34 xFIP over the last 30 days. 

Atlanta used more of their bullpen last night, but I’m expecting Strider to throw deep into this game. They own a reasonable 3.63 xFIP over the last 30 days, and they should be able to handle a few innings at the end of the game. 

Once again, we’re backing high-end pitching over the offenses in MLB. Peterson is the obvious concern, but he’s thrown well enough throughout the season for us to back him, even in this matchup.

Mets vs. Braves Pick: Under 8.5  | -115 at DraftKings