Marlins vs. Reds Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions: Starting Pitchers Will Shine

Ready to lock in your MLB bets? OddsJam’s MLB expert breaks down his top pick and prediction for today’s slate. Find the bet @BalesSJustin is eyeing below.

Marlins vs. Reds Betting Preview

6:40 p.m. ET

Luis Castillo and the Cincinnati Reds will host Braxton Garrett and the Miami Marlins tonight. We have two solid pitchers on the mound in interesting matchups against these offenses. 

Castillo’s thrown extremely well throughout the 2022 season. He owns a 3-4 record with a 2.77 ERA through 13 starts. He also owns an outstanding 3.45 xFIP, which is one of the best of his career. 

Castillo boasts a 48.5% groundball rate, which has helped him get out of tough situations throughout the season. He also boasts a solid 25.5% strikeout rate, which is backed by 11.4% swinging-strike and 27.9% CSW rates. 

One of the biggest keys for Castillo is that he forces opponents to string hits together to beat him. He enters this game with a 0.58 HR/9. This is the lowest rate of his career. He’s allowed only 5 home runs this season. 

Castillo’s throwing at an extremely high level in recent games. He’s allowed 1 or fewer earned runs in 4 consecutive starts, throwing 6+ innings in each game. Overall, he’s allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 8 of his 13 starts in 2022. 

Castillo doesn’t feature major home/road splits, as his numbers are nearly identical in either situation. He’s drastically better against right-handed batters, though. His strikeout rate jumps to 27.4% and his xFIP dips to 3.03 against that handedness. 

Miami’s using more left-handed batters, as they’re only expected to have five right-handed batters in their lineup tonight. That’s still over half of the lineup, and they don’t truly feature any lefties that you should be overly concerned with. 

The Marlins have been one of the worst offenses in the MLB in recent games. Over the last 14 days, they rank 29th in the league in team wOBA (.255) and last in slugging percentage (.279). 

Miami also ranks 12th in the MLB in average (.245) and 16th in slugging percentage (.389) and OPS (.698). They’re an offense that has struggled with power, specifically in recent games, giving a massive edge to Castillo.

Garrett will draw the start on the other side of this game. He’s quietly been throwing at a high level for the Marlins. He owns a 2-3 record with a 3.42 ERA and a 3.47 xFIP through 9 starts in 2022. 

Garrett boasts a reasonable 45.1% groundball rate, and he has the ability to get them when needed. He also owns 24% strikeout, 12.5% swinging-strike, and 31.2% CSW rates, giving him multiple avenues to get out of difficult situations. 

Garrett’s allowed 1 or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts. Overall, he’s given up one or fewer earned runs in five of his nine starts on the season. 

Granted, this should be a difficult matchup for the rookie. He’s struggled at times on the road, although he’s gotten a few terrible matchups. Garrett posted xFIPs under 3.50 on the road against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals, and Houston Astros. 

The biggest concern is the left-hander is significantly better against left-handed batters. The Reds are expected to utilize eight right-handed batters tonight with Joey Votto being the only lefty. 

Cincinnati’s been an average offense in recent games. They rank 16th in the MLB in team wOBA (.313) and 15th in slugging percentage (.405) over the last 14 days. 

Here’s where the Reds get slightly interesting. They rank 17th in the MLB in average (.246), 20th in slugging percentage (.386), and 19th in OPS (.707) against left-handed pitching. They jump into the top 10 of the league in each of these categories when playing at home, though. 

Still, I feel comfortable backing Garrett, who’s consistently proven he can throw at a high level in the MLB.

Overall, I expect Castillo to find plenty of success early in this game, giving some wiggle room for Garrett to struggle at times in the first five innings.

Marlins vs. Reds Pick: F5 Under 4 | -105 at DraftKings