Ready to lock in your MLB bets? OddsJam’s MLB expert breaks down his top pick and prediction for today’s slate. Find the F5 bet @BalesSJustin is eyeing below.
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick: Phillies F5 -0.5 | +100 at FanDuel
7:06 p.m. ET
The Philadelphia Phillies are one of the hottest teams in the MLB at the moment, posting a 9-1 record over their last 10 games. The Miami Marlins have also found plenty of success in recent games, recording a 6-4 record over the same span.
We’re looking to back the hotter team early in this game, though.
Zach Eflin will take the mound for Philadelphia. He’s consistently been a better pitcher at home throughout his career, and that’s the case this season as well.
Eflin’s posted a 1.16 ERA with a 3.26 xFIP through 31 home innings this season. A major key is that he’s only given up a 13.6% hard-hit rate in Philadelphia.
Through five home starts, Eflin’s allowed only 4 earned runs over 31 innings. He’s also shut down the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers, who feature dominant offenses.
The right-hander will face off against Miami tonight. The Marlins quietly rank sixth in the MLB in OPS (.741) against right-handed pitching. With that being said, they’ve cooled off a bit in recent games, ranking 13th in the MLB in team wOBA (.322) over the last 14 days.
Eflin should find at least some success in this matchup, although I expect him to get plenty of early support from the Philadelphia offense.
On the other side, Trevor Rogers will draw the start. He’s been struggling with control throughout the season, causing his strikeouts to dip. He’s a player that relies heavily on his strikeout stuff, though, which has resulted in plenty of struggles in 2022.
Rogers owns a reasonable 3.34 ERA through 29.2 road innings this season. With that being said, he’s also recorded a 4.89 road xFIP, suggesting he’s due for plenty of regression.
His strikeout rate also dips to 15.2% on the road, meaning Philadelphia will see plenty of opportunities to put the ball in play in this game.
The southpaw faced off against the Phillies once this season, allowing 7 earned runs over only 1.2 innings. I’m not expecting something quite that crazy, but I do expect the Phillies offense to find plenty of success in this matchup.
Philadelphia ranks fourth in the MLB in team wOBA (.367) over the last 14 days. There are plenty of strikeouts available throughout their lineup, but they boast a .759 OPS against left-handed pitching, which ranks seventh in the MLB this season.
The Phillies have also found more success than the Marlins early in games. The former ranks 10th in runs scored in the first five innings, while the latter ranks 20th in the same category. Furthermore, Philadelphia ranks five spots ahead of Miami in opponent runs per game in the first five innings.
Essentially, we’re getting even odds on the home team with the better starting pitcher and offense early in the game. They simply need to be winning by the end of the fifth inning.
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