Marlins vs. Cardinals Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions Today – June 27, 2022

Ready to lock in your MLB bets? OddsJam’s MLB expert breaks down his top pick and prediction for today’s slate. Find the first five inning bet @BalesSJustin is eyeing below.

Marlins vs. Cardinals First 5 Under 3.5 | +116 at FanDuel

7:45 p.m. ET

The St. Louis Cardinals will host the Miami Marlins at Busch Stadium tonight. We have a battle between two outstanding starting pitchers with Pablo Lopez and Adam Wainwright taking the mound for their respective teams.

Ultimately, we’ll be looking to back high-end arms over hot offenses in the game. 

Lopez is enjoying another outstanding season. He boasts a 5-3 record with a 2.61 ERA through 14 starts. His dominant ERA is backed by an outstanding 3.34 xFIP as well. He’s a pitcher that has the ability to get strikeouts or ground balls at any given time, and he doesn’t hand out many free passes in his starts. 

Lopez has quietly allowed 1 or fewer earned runs in eight of his 14 starts this season. He’s been struggling a bit more in recent games, but he held St. Louis scoreless over seven innings in their only matchup of the season. 

Lopez is a slightly better pitcher at home, although he still owns a 3.41 xFIP through 41.2 road innings. He’s also found slightly more success against right-handed batters, although he isn’t a player who owns massive splits.

Overall, his biggest struggles have come against powerful left-handed batters on the road, and that isn’t a situation I’m overly concerned with tonight. 

The Cardinals are expected to utilize five right-handed batters in this game. They are also using two switch hitters in Dylan Carlson and Tommy Edman. Carlson is a better option against left-handed pitching, and Edman has struggled with power against righties. The final two lefties, Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman, have combined for only 8 home runs this season. 

St. Louis has been a relatively average offense as a whole against right-handed pitching because of their lack of power. They rank ninth in MLB in batting average (.250) against righties, but they also rank 15th in slugging percentage (.397) and 14th in OPS (.715). The Cardinals also rank 17th in ISO (.147) against righties this season. 

The major concern here is that St. Louis has been hitting at an extremely high level in recent games. Over the last 14 days, they rank fourth in the MLB in team wOBA (.344). They also rank third in slugging percentage (.461) and fifth in ISO (.198) over that span. 

The majority of St. Louis’ power comes from the right side of the plate, though, and I’m expecting Lopez to hold them in check in this game. 

Wainwright draws the start on the other side, and this game sets up perfectly for him. He’s posted a 5-5 record with a 3.32 ERA through 14 starts. He also owns a solid 3.89 xFIP through 84 innings this season. Wainwright isn’t a dominant strikeout option anymore, but he can get ground balls and limits hard contact. 

He’s been struggling in recent starts, although his advanced metrics suggest he’s gotten a bit unlucky. On the season, he’s given up 2 or fewer earned runs in seven of his 14 starts. He also allowed only 1 earned run over 5.2 innings in his only matchup against Miami. 

Wainwright continues to be a completely different pitcher at home. He boasts a 3.45 xFIP in St. Louis this season. His strikeout rate also jumps to 22.8% while his walk rate dips to 6.7%. Wainwright is also dominant against right-handed batters, posting a 3.49 xFIP with 20.9% strikeout and 4.9% walk rates this season. 

The Marlins are expected to utilize seven right-handed batters throughout their lineup tonight. Wainwright should be able to work his way around Jazz Chisholm and Jesus Sanchez, who are hitting several batters apart from each other. 

Miami has found some success recently, ranking 12th in MLB in team wOBA over the last 14 days. With that being said, they rank 15 points behind the 11th-place team. For comparison, if they dropped 15 points, they’d rank 27th in team wOBA. 

On the season, the Marlins have found success against righties, though. They rank fifth in the league in team batting average (.254) and seventh in slugging percentage (.418) and OPS (.738) against right-handed pitching this season. 

Ultimately, I expect Wainwright to continue to find success at home. He gets the edge over the right-handed batters for Miami, and I’m expecting him to control their power and limit their opportunities tonight. 

There is also a small weather boost for the pitchers, as the wind is blowing in from left-field slightly under 10 mph.