Mariners vs. A’s Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions Today – June 23, 2022

Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics

3:40 p.m. ET

Robbie Ray’s seen mixed results throughout the season. He’s posted a 6-6 record with a 4.25 ERA through 14 starts. He’s due for some positive regression, as he boasts a 3.79 xFIP this season. 

His K/9 dipped drastically, as it sits at 9.7 in 2022. Overall, he owns 26.1% strikeout, 15.1% swinging-strike, and 26.6% CSW rates through 84.2 innings. Ray’s struggled with control throughout the season, as his walk rate is up 1.6% from last season and his called-strike rate is down nearly 3%. 

He’s recorded 7+ strikeouts in 6 of his 14 starts this season. He’s also hit that threshold in only 1 of his last 4 starts. Ray’s also posted an xFIP under 4 in only 1 of those 4 starts. 

The left-hander owns surprising splits on this slate. He’s striking out left-handed batters 32.8% of the time this season. That percentage dips to 24.7% against righties. His strikeout rate also dips from 27.9% at home to 24.3% on the road. 

Another key to this is his walk rate. It jumps to 9.4% against right-handed batters and 11.9% on the road. In that very specific situation, Ray’s walk rate jumps to 13.1% on the season. 

He gets an elite matchup against the Oakland A’s, although I’m not entirely sure this will be ideal for strikeouts. Oakland’s currently striking out only 20.2% of the time over the last 14 days. That ranks as the seventh-lowest rate in the MLB over that span. They also strike out at only the 18th-highest rate (21.5%) in the MLB at home against left-handed pitching. 

The biggest concern here will be their offensive struggles, allowing Robbie Ray to potentially throw deep into the game. They rank last in the MLB in team wOBA (.276) over the last 14 days. They also rank last in the league in OPS (.546) at home against left-handed pitchers. 

The A’s do walk at the eighth-highest rate (9.6%) in the MLB at home against lefties, though. They’ll have the ability to get deeper into counts against Ray tonight, which could limit his innings against them. 

Ray posted 10 strikeouts over 6 innings against Oakland in their only matchup this season. That was in Seattle, though, and the A’s were striking out at a significantly higher rate in their games. 

There’s certainly risk involved in this play because of Oakland’s penchant for striking out this season. With that being said, I love the plus odds here. Ray will be in his worst situation with Oakland potentially sending out 9 right-handed batters today. This line feels juiced because of his last performance against them, but I don’t truly believe he’ll find the same success in Oakland.

I’m not entirely sure the odds aren’t going to widen by the time the game starts. There are certainly no guarantees, but you may be able to get better odds by waiting on this bet. For what it’s worth, I feel comfortable with the +118 odds, which is why I’m writing it up as it is now. 

Mariners vs. A’s Pick: Robbie Ray under 6.5 strikeouts | +118 at FanDuel