Juan Soto Traded to Padres: Effects on World Series Futures Odds, Win Total & More From Soto, Josh Bell Trade

<p>AP Photos</p>

AP Photos

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Justin BalesAugust 2, 2022 at 10:08 PM

The Juan Soto saga in Washington has officially come to an end. The star outfielder was officially traded to the San Diego Padres earlier today. 

The Washington Nationals received a haul of players that they were expecting for one of the best young stars in MLB. Soto and Josh Bell were sent to San Diego in exchange for MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, C.J. Abrams, James Wood, Jarlin Susana and Luke Voit. 

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Gore and Abrams are two high-upside, young players that have MLB experience. They ranked 55th and sixth in the MLB’s top 100 prospects in 2021. Hassell, Wood and Susana currently shift into the No. 1, 4, and 8 slots for Washington’s current prospect list. 

Even this trade wasn’t without some drama, though. Eric Hosmer was originally part of the deal, but he refused to waive his no-trade clause. It was said that everyone in the organization knew that Washington was on his list, but that didn’t stop the initial reports of him being involved. Ultimately, San Diego traded Hosmer to Boston and Voit took his place. 

Adding Soto and Bell is going to have a massive ripple effect on the Padres offense. The initial part that sticks out is the middle of the order. They have several elite bats, meaning there won’t be anyone to throw around. 

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Soto is only hitting .246 this season with 39 extra-base hits (21 home runs) and 46 RBIs. The key to his numbers is that he’s been walked 91 times in 101 games. Teams aren’t forced to throw to him. If they let him on base, who else is going to drive him home? 

The same can be said for Bell, although to a lesser extent. Teams aren’t pitching around him the same way they did Soto, but they also generally wouldn’t give him anything to hit. 

Essentially, if pitchers worked their way around Soto and Bell, they could deal with the rest of an easy lineup. This will no longer be the case. 

If opposing teams want to pitch around Soto and Bell now, they’ll be forced to throw to batters like Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth. In turn, this creates the same effect throughout the Padres’ offense. Machado’s been the player that teams generally throw around, and he’s going to see plenty more pitches moving forward. 

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It’s important to note that Fernando Tatis Jr. will return sooner than later for San Diego. They’re going to feature one of the best offenses in the league with players like Jurickson Profar, Brandon Drury, Austin Nola and Jorge Alfaro hitting near the bottom of their lineup. 

The Soto and Bell trade will guarantee that the Padres feature one of the best offenses in MLB from top to bottom.

The bigger concern still remains with their pitching. They have several high-level arms, but do they have the ability to compete with staffs like those of the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets or Atlanta Braves?

Updated Padres Futures, Win Total & World Series Odds

The Padres’ win total was last set at 90.5 games. It was updated roughly an hour before the Soto/Bell trade, meaning it was after the Josh Hader trade. Since then, it’s been pulled from the sportsbooks, and we aren’t currently seeing a win total for them.

One has to believe that it will be slightly over this, as I’d anticipate it gets much closer to the Braves’ total of 94.5 wins. 

San Diego’s odds to win the NL West increased drastically, but they still aren’t good. Prior to the trade, the Padres had +2500 odds to win the West. They’ve dropped to +1800, although that still implies only a 5.3% chance of winning the division. These odds were taken from BetMGM, and they vary on different books. For example, the Padres currently have +3500 odds to win the West on DraftKings. 

San Diego’s odds shifted drastically to win the National League, though. They entered the day with +900 odds. They ranked fourth in the NL behind the Dodgers (+140), Mets (+275) and Braves (+450).

They had double the odds as all three of these teams, and they were only slightly better than the Milwaukee Brewers (+1200). 

The Padres’ odds have shifted to +450 to win the NL. The Dodgers and Mets have stayed the same, but the Braves have dipped to +500, putting them in fourth. The Brewers’ odds have also dropped to +1300. These are the only teams with odds better than +2000 to win the NL. 

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Unsurprisingly, San Diego’s World Series odds have also increased quite a bit. The Padres featured +1800 odds to win the World Series this morning, which ranked seventh in the league. They were behind the NL teams listed above as well as the New York Yankees, Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays. 

The Padres’ odds were cut in half, as they now sit at +900. They jumped the Braves (+1200) and Blue Jays (+1400), and they’re only slightly behind the Mets. Overall, San Diego currently boasts the fifth-best odds to win the World Series. 

Soto and company put more pressure on San Diego’s pitching staff. They feature one of the best offenses in MLB, and their World Series hopes will rely heavily on their pitching staff. Regardless of the results, the Padres’ trade puts them in a drastically better position for this season. 


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