JayGotPlays: MLB Best Bet Tigers vs. A’s Pick, Prediction – May 10, 2022

Tigers vs. Athletics Pick (Game 1) – 1:10 p.m. EST

Tarik Skubal over 6.5 Strikeouts | +110 at BetMGM

Great value here. Skubal gets the start for the Detroit Tigers in Game 1 of their double header versus the Athletics. Skubal has a 26% K Rate on the season, and struck out 9 batters in his last start.

The A’s offer a very advantageous matchup for Skubal, as they strike out at a 26% rate versus left handed pitchers. The interesting part about Tarik, is that he is actually a reverse splits pitcher when it comes to strikeout rate.

As a lefty, he strikes out right handed batters (27%) at a much higher rate than left handed batters (20%). The Athletics lineup is extremely heavy on the right side with a projection of 8/9 batters being right handed today, making this a great spot for Skubal.

Skubal likes to throw his slider, as it’s his most effective strikeout pitch. His slider contains a 35% whiff rate this season.

The Oakland lineup does not hit lefty sliders well. Six of nine Oakland batters are whiffing at 30%+ versus the pitch. Four of nine are whiffing at 40%+ versus sliders from the left side.

The Pitch type data, Strikeout rates, and low Vegas implied total gives this player prop huge upside at plus money.