Tigers vs. Athletics Pick (Game 1) – 1:10 p.m. EST
Great value here. Skubal gets the start for the Detroit Tigers in Game 1 of their double header versus the Athletics. Skubal has a 26% K Rate on the season, and struck out 9 batters in his last start.
The A’s offer a very advantageous matchup for Skubal, as they strike out at a 26% rate versus left handed pitchers. The interesting part about Tarik, is that he is actually a reverse splits pitcher when it comes to strikeout rate.
As a lefty, he strikes out right handed batters (27%) at a much higher rate than left handed batters (20%). The Athletics lineup is extremely heavy on the right side with a projection of 8/9 batters being right handed today, making this a great spot for Skubal.
Skubal likes to throw his slider, as it’s his most effective strikeout pitch. His slider contains a 35% whiff rate this season.
The Oakland lineup does not hit lefty sliders well. Six of nine Oakland batters are whiffing at 30%+ versus the pitch. Four of nine are whiffing at 40%+ versus sliders from the left side.
The Pitch type data, Strikeout rates, and low Vegas implied total gives this player prop huge upside at plus money.