Guardians vs. Twins Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions Today – June 22, 2022

Ready to lock in your MLB bets? OddsJam’s MLB expert breaks down his top pick and prediction for today’s slate. Find the first five inning bet @BalesSJustin is eyeing below.

Guardians vs. Twins Pick: Twins F5 -0.5 Run Line | -110 at DraftKings

7:40 p.m. ET

Sonny Gray and the Minnesota Twins will host Triston McKenzie and the Cleveland Guardians at Target Field tonight. It’s a big game for the standings, as Minnesota and Cleveland are currently tied for first in the AL Central. 

The location is extremely important, as both teams are significantly better at home. The Twins boast a 20-15 home record compared to an 18-16 record on the road.

The Guardians are solid on the road, posting a 19-18 record, although they’re significantly better in Cleveland, where they own a 16-10 record this season. 

Gray will take the mound for Minnesota and he’s looked outstanding early this season. He boasts a 3-1 record with a 2.09 ERA through eight starts. His ERA is backed by a 3.13 xFIP.

Gray is due for some regression, although it shows he’s throwing extremely well at the moment. 

The right-hander has been better in Minnesota, where his xFIP dips to 2.98 on the season. He also boasts a 32.4% strikeout rate, limiting his opponents’ chances. 

Most importantly, Gray is an outstanding pitcher early in games. He hasn’t allowed a run in the first five innings of any of his last three starts. Excluding the game against the Boston Red Sox, the Twins have allowed only 6 runs in the first five innings of his starts this season.

It’s important to note that he wasn’t throwing all five innings early in the season. 

Gray gets a solid matchup against a struggling Cleveland offense tonight. The Guardians currently rank 19th in MLB in team wOBA (.306) over the last 14 days. They also rank 13th in the league in OPS (.722) against right-handed pitching in 2022.

Overall, Cleveland ranks as an average team in runs scored in the first five innings of the game, and that number dips to 2.41 on the road. 

McKenzie draws the start for Cleveland tonight. He’s thrown well this season, posting a 4-5 record with a 2.96 ERA through 12 games (11 starts). He’s due for quite a bit of regression, though, as he also owns a 4.46 xFIP. 

McKenzie doesn’t have big splits, as he’s similar at home and on the road. He also boasts similar numbers against left- and right-handed batters this season. 

The young right-handed starter has been struggling quite a bit in recent games as well. He’s posted an xFIP north of 4 in five of his last six starts, including a 7.03 xFIP against the Baltimore Orioles. 

McKenzie’s given up at least 1 earned run in the first five innings of each of his last four starts. Over that span, he gave up 9 earned runs in those innings, although the majority of those came against the Baltimore Orioles.

In their only matchup this season, Minnesota scored 3 first five-inning runs against McKenzie, which was on May 15. 

The Twins have found solid offensive success in recent games. Over the last 14 days, they rank ninth in the MLB with a .333 team wOBA.

Minnesota also dominated right-handed pitching throughout the season, ranking fourth in the MLB in OPS (.742) against righties. That number jumps to .779 when they’re playing at home. 

This is a bet specifically on Gray more than anything else. I do love the idea of McKenzie struggling with regression in this game as well. 

The key to taking the first five innings bet is avoiding the Cleveland bullpen. They feature one of the best bullpens in MLB, and it’s a significant edge over Minnesota’s bullpen.

In this situation, we’re trusting Gray over McKenzie, and if Cleveland’s bullpen is in the game by the fifth inning, that means Minnesota already scored plenty of runs.