Guardians vs. Tigers Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions – August 9, 2022: Why Shane Bieber is Going to Dominate Detroit

Ready to lock in your MLB bets? OddsJam’s MLB expert breaks down his top pick and prediction for today’s slate. Find the bet @BalesSJustin is eyeing below.

Guardians vs. Tigers Betting Odds

7:10 p.m. ET

Tyler Alexander and the Detroit Tigers will host Shane Bieber and the Cleveland Guardians at Comerica Park tonight. We’re backing the better starting pitcher with the better offense for this bet. 

Bieber’s been enjoying a dominant season in 2022. He owns a 6-6 record with a 3.39 ERA through 20 starts. His success is backed by an elite 3.13 xFIP. 

He hasn’t been as dominant of a strikeout pitcher this season, but he still owns a 25.1% strikeout rate through 124.2 innings. He also owns a respectable 44.9% groundball rate, giving him multiple ways to get out of tough situations. 

Bieber’s success comes through his ability to make his opponents beat him. In other words, he limits mistakes. He enters this game with a 5.6% walk rate to go along with a 0.79 HR/9 this season. 

Bieber’s been slightly worse on the road this season. His xFIP increases to 3.36, although that’s still great. More importantly, he’s been significantly better against left-handed batters in 2022. His strikeout rate jumps to 28.4% against lefties to go along with a 2.89 xFIP. 

Not to mention he can throw deep into games, as he’s thrown six-plus innings in 15 of his last 18 starts. He’s also allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 11 of those 18 starts. He’s allowed more than 3 earned runs in only three of those 18 starts. 

Bieber gets an elite matchup against the Tigers. They’ve been struggling recently, ranking last in the MLB in team wOBA (.257) and 29th in slugging percentage (.312) over the last 14 days. 

Detroit has also been struggling against right-handed pitching. They rank 29th in average (.201) and last in slugging percentage (.300) and OPS (.557) against righties since July 16. They’ve been slightly better at home, although they’re still one of the worst offenses in the MLB. 

On the other side, Alexander will take the mound. He’s posted a 2-5 record with a 4.04 ERA through 16 games (six starts). He’s struggled with a 4.68 xFIP as well. 

Alexander struggles to get strikeouts or groundballs. He gives up plenty of line drives and fly balls, although he does boast a 1.06 HR/9 this season. The left-hander could see some regression, as he’s given up a 33.1% hard-hit rate this season. 

Alexander’s struggled as a starter this season. He owns a 6.75 ERA to go along with a 4.78 xFIP as a starter in 2022. He’s been slightly better at home, but he’s struggled mightily against right-handed batters. His strikeout rate dips to 11.9% against righties, while his xFIP skyrockets to 5.19. 

Alexander gets an interesting matchup against Cleveland tonight. They haven’t been overly successful in recent games, ranking 18th in the MLB in team wOBA (.300) and 20th in slugging percentage (.376) over the last 14 days. 

The Guardians also rank 15th in the MLB in average (.236), 19th in slugging percentage (.343), and 18th in OPS (.655) against left-handed pitching since July 16. The key here is that Cleveland is expected to utilize seven right-handed batters tonight. 

The Guardians feature one of the best bullpens in the MLB, posting a 3.14 xFIP over the last 30 days. This is roughly a full run lower than the Tigers’ bullpen. 

Cleveland currently has -130 odds to be winning this game after the first five innings. Bieber’s consistently thrown six-plus innings, including a complete game recently. There’s also very little reason to believe the Guardians’ bullpen will blow a lead late once they get it. 

Cleveland should give Bieber plenty of run support with Alexander on the mound. I wouldn’t expect him to need much in this matchup, though. We’re getting great odds on Bieber picking up the win compared to what other bets are available on the books. 

Guardians vs. Tigers Pick: Shane Bieber to Record a Win | +100 at DraftKings