Guardians vs. Red Sox Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions: Can Cleveland Extend Boston’s Losing Streak?

Ready to lock in your MLB bets? OddsJam’s MLB expert breaks down his top pick and prediction for today’s slate. Find the bet @BalesSJustin is eyeing below.

Guardians vs. Red Sox Betting Preview

7:10 p.m. ET

Nick Pivetta and the Boston Red Sox will host Zach Plesac and the Cleveland Guardians at Fenway Park tonight. We’re banking on the hotter, healthier team in somewhat of a similar pitching matchup here. 

Pivetta’s seen mixed results throughout the 2022 season. He owns an 8-7 record with a 4.50 ERA through 19 starts. He’s also recorded a 4.27 xFIP thus far. 

Pivetta has the ability to get strikeouts, posting 23% strikeout, 9.2% swinging-strike, and 27.2% CSW rates through 108 innings. He’s struggled a bit with an 8.6% walk rate, though. He also owns a 44.4% flyball rate to go along with a 1.17 HR/9 this season. 

The biggest issue for Pivetta is his recent form. He’s posted a 4.60 or worse xFIP in each of his last four starts. Over that span, he owns starts with 6.79, 5.40, and 5.44 xFIPs. He’s also given up six or more earned runs in each of his last three starts. 

The right-hander gets a tough matchup against Cleveland tonight. The Guardians rank sixth in the MLB in team wOBA (.341) and seventh in slugging percentage (.432) over the last 14 days. They’ve caught fire, as Cleveland’s averaging six runs per game over the last seven games. 

The Guardians have found plenty of success against right-handed pitching this season as well. They rank second in MLB in average (.263), ninth in slugging percentage (.410), and eighth in OPS (.733) against righties. 

Cleveland should have a massive edge over Pivetta in this game. 

Plesac will take the mound for the Guardians. He’s posted similar numbers to Pivetta throughout the season. Overall, he owns a 2-7 record with a 4.02 ERA and a 4.38 xFIP. 

Plesac isn’t a strikeout option, as he only owns 16.9% strikeout, 9.8% swinging-strike, and 25.1% CSW rates through 94 innings. He does boast 5.7% walk and 40.8% ground ball rates this season, though. 

Similar to Pivetta, Plesac’s recent form is a key to this bet. He’s posted a 4.37 xFIP or better in five consecutive games. He’s also recorded 3.52 and 3.51 xFIPs in his last two starts. Oddly enough, Plesac’s ERA hasn’t matched his recent success in those two games. Overall, he’s given up two or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts, flashing high-end potential. 

He’ll face off against Boston, who has found plenty of success against right-handed pitching this season. They rank sixth in the MLB in average (.253), 11th in slugging percentage (.404), and 10th in OPS (.715) against righties. 

The Red Sox have struggled in recent games, though. They rank 27th in the MLB in team wOBA (.271) and 20th in slugging percentage (.378) over the last 14 days. 

Boston is dealing with several injuries, as Trevor Story, Rafael Devers, Kike Hernandez, and Christian Arroyo are all on the IL. J.D. Martinez is also struggling with a back injury, and he isn’t expected to play tonight. 

There is some concern that Boston is expected to use five left-handed batters tonight, but they aren’t players that I’m overly concerned with. Jarren Duran, Alex Verdugo, Jackie Bradley Jr., Yolmer Sanchez, and Franchy Cordero are the five lefties expected to start.

I’m also not overly concerned with Jeter Downs or Bobby Dalbec, who are also expected to find their way into the lineup. 

These two teams own similar bullpen xFIPs over the last 30 days, although Cleveland’s is a bit better. The Guardians have also flashed the better bullpen earlier in the season, and they should have the edge here. 

Ultimately, this is a relatively similar starting pitcher matchup, and I may even give a slight edge to Pivetta. Cleveland is the healthier, hotter offense, though, and Boston doesn’t have a lineup that anyone should be too concerned with at the moment. Cleveland also owns the better bullpen, giving them the edge as small underdogs in this matchup.

Guardians vs. Red Sox Pick: Guardians Moneyline | -102 at FanDuel