Giants vs. Padres Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions Today – July 7, 2022

Ready to lock in your MLB bets? OddsJam’s MLB expert breaks down his top pick and prediction for today’s slate. Find the bet @BalesSJustin is eyeing below.

Giants vs. Padres Betting Preview

9:40 p.m. ET

Joe Musgrove and the San Diego Padres will host Logan Webb and the San Francisco Giants in a battle of the aces tonight. We’re backing two of the best pitchers in baseball against two sputtering offenses tonight. 

Musgrove’s thrown at an extremely high level throughout the 2022 season. He boasts an 8-2 record with a 2.25 ERA through 14 starts. He also owns a solid 3.07 xFIP, which is the best of his career. 

Musgrove boasts 25.6% strikeout and 47.7% groundball rates this season. This gives him the ability to get out of difficult situations with strikeouts or double plays.

He’s also held his opponents to 24.2% hard-hit, 5.3% walk, and 0.88 HR/9 rates this season. Essentially, opponents have to work hard to score runs off of him. They generally won’t luck their way into them. 

Musgrove’s thrown even better at home in 2022. He owns a 2.97 xFIP with a 23.1% hard-hit rate in San Diego this season. He’s also given up 2 or fewer earned runs in 5 of his 6 home starts this season. 

The right-hander gets a great matchup against the Giants tonight. San Francisco’s been struggling to produce in recent games, ranking 24th in the MLB in team wOBA (.297) and 25th in slugging percentage (.359) over the last 14 days. 

The Giants have featured an average offense against right-handed pitching throughout the season. They rank 20th in average (.237), 15th in slugging percentage (.393), and 14th in OPS (.714). They’re an offense that walks often against righties, but that won’t be an advantage for them against Musgrove tonight. 

Webb draws the start for San Francisco tonight. He’s enjoying an outstanding season with a 7-3 record and 3.13 ERA through 16 starts. His ERA is backed by a dominant 3.22 xFIP through 97.2 innings. 

Webb has the ability to get strikeouts, but his 21.7% strikeout rate leaves plenty to be desired. Instead, he relies on a ridiculous 56.9% groundball rate to get out of tough situations. He also owns 26.1% hard-hit and 0.55 HR/9 rates this season. 

Unfortunately, Webb’s been a better pitcher at home this season. With that being said, he still boasts a 3.44 xFIP through 43 road innings. His hard-hit rate increases by less than 1% on the road as well. The right-hander’s allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in 6 of his 7 road starts this season. 

Webb will face off against one of the league’s coldest offenses. San Diego currently ranks 28th in the MLB in team wOBA (.269) and 29th in slugging percentage (.319) over the last 14 days. They’ve been one of few teams to produce worse than the Giants over that span. 

The Padres haven’t been overly successful against right-handed pitching throughout the season either. They rank 19th in the league in average (.238), 25th in slugging percentage (.370), and 21st in OPS (.682) against righties. 

These pitchers haven’t faced off in a game against each other yet this season, but they each have a start against the opposing team. Webb held San Diego to only 1 run over 8 innings, while Musgrove didn’t allow a run over 7 innings. 

I don’t fully trust the bullpens in this game, specifically the Giants. I don’t expect it to matter that much, though. Webb and Musgrove have both proven that they can throw deep into games, and we aren’t likely to see either bullpen for more than a few innings. If we’re seeing a heavy role from either bullpen, the total likely loses anyway since it’s so low. 

Overall, it’s tough to back such a low total in an MLB game. Most would think this is crazy, but I like getting plus odds on it. Two of the best arms in the league will be throwing against two of the coldest offenses in the pitcher-friendly stadium. All signs point to a low-scoring game tonight.

Giants vs. Padres Pick: Under 6.5 | +105 at DraftKings