Giants vs. Diamondbacks Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions Today – July 6, 2022

Ready to lock in your MLB bets? OddsJam’s MLB expert breaks down his top pick and prediction for today’s slate. Find the first five inning bet @BalesSJustin is eyeing below.

Giants vs. Diamondbacks Betting Preview

9:40 p.m. ET

Merrill Kelly and the Arizona Diamondbacks will host Alex Cobb and the San Francisco Giants tonight. We’re backing two surprisingly good arms against two struggling offenses early in this game. 

Kelly isn’t an overly dominant pitcher, although he’s enjoying a solid season. He boasts a 7-5 record with a 3.46 ERA through 16 starts. His ERA is backed by a 4.05 xFIP, suggesting he’s due for some regression as he throws more innings in 2022. 

Kelly has been extremely good at limiting home runs this season and he has the ability to get groundballs in tough situations. He has seen mixed results in recent games, but he’s allowed 1 or fewer earned runs in two of his last three starts. He’s also posted an xFIP under 4.00 in five consecutive starts. 

The key here is where this game will take place. Kelly’s been a significantly better pitcher in Arizona this season, and he’ll benefit from throwing at home. 

He’s recorded a 3.25 xFIP through 53 innings in Arizona. He’s held his opponents to a 29.9% hard-hit rate at home as well. Another major factor in his home success is that his strikeout rate jumps to 23.2% while his walk rate dips to 6.8%. 

Kelly has the advanced metrics of a high-end arm in Arizona, and this run total doesn’t represent that. 

The Arizona right-hander will also get an outstanding matchup against San Francisco tonight. The Giants have been ice cold offensively in recent games, ranking 24th in team wOBA (.292) over the last 14 days. They own the same rank for slugging percentage (.356) over that span. 

San Francisco has found some success against right-handed pitching in 2022. The Giants currently rank 13th in the league in OPS (.716) against righties. They’re roughly an average offense in terms of consistency and power, and they gain a small edge with their walk rate. This shouldn’t be a major issue for Kelly, who has the clear edge in this matchup. 

On the other side, Cobb will take the mound for San Francisco. He’s arguably the most undervalued starting pitcher in MLB at the moment. His baseline metrics aren’t great, as he owns a 3-3 record with a 4.59 ERA through 11 starts. That isn’t why we love him, though. 

Cobb is due for a ton of positive regression as he throws more innings. First, his .352 BABIP is unsustainable, especially with his 26.7% hard-hit rate. Cobb also owns a ridiculous 2.74 xFIP. This ranks as the best xFIP on the entire slate today. It’s lower than Corbin Burnes, Aaron Nola and Max Fried. 

Cobb’s only allowed 2 earned runs in 13.1 innings since returning from injury. He hasn’t thrown quite as well as before his injury in those games, but he’s still found plenty of success. There’s very little reason to believe the Diamondbacks are going to be an offense that gets to him tonight. 

Arizona has been hitting better in recent games, but the Diamondbacks are still a relatively average offense. They currently rank 14th in MLB in team wOBA (.319) and slugging percentage (.418) over the last 14 days. 

The Diamondbacks have struggled against right-handed pitching this season, though. They rank 20th in MLB in OPS (.687) against righties in 2022. They don’t feature an offense that will get to a dominant right-handed pitcher, specifically at home where their OPS drops to .659. 

It’s important to note that these two offenses have struggled at times early in games this season. The Giants rank seventh in the league in runs scored in the first five innings (2.73), but their total drops to only 2.47 on the road. The Diamondbacks rank 27th (2.10) in the same category, and their total drops to 2.05 at home. 

These are two disrespected arms for the situation, and we can take advantage of that tonight. 

Giants vs. Diamondbacks F5 Under 4  | -110 at DraftKings