Dodgers vs. Rockies Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions Today – June 29, 2022

Ready to lock in your MLB bets? OddsJam’s MLB expert breaks down his top pick and prediction for today’s slate. Find the first five innings pick @BalesSJustin is eyeing below.

Dodgers vs. Rockies Betting Preview

8:40 p.m. ET

The Colorado Rockies will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Coors Field tonight. We get an interesting pitching matchup with German Marquez and Julio Urias taking the mound. Overall, this is a bet based solely on the odds. 

Marquez hasn’t found success this season, posting a 4-5 record with a 5.58 ERA through 14 starts. He also owns a 4.00 xFIP, suggesting he’s due for positive regression as the season progresses. 

Marquez is due for a ridiculous amount of regression in Colorado, though. He owns a 6.70 ERA to go along with a 3.57 xFIP in Coors. The right-hander’s strikeout rate jumps to 21.2% and his walk rate dips to only 5.2% at home as well. 

Julio Urias will start for Los Angeles tonight. He’s essentially dealing with the exact opposite situation as Marquez. Urias enters this game with a 5-6 record and 2.48 ERA. He’s due for plenty of regression, though, as he owns a 3.97 xFIP through 76.1 innings. 

The left-hander has thrown better on the road, although his 2.36 road ERA is significantly lower than his 3.79 xFIP. 

Most importantly, Urias’ 35.5% curveball rate this season is going to put him at a massive disadvantage tonight. Curveballs are one of the least effective pitches in Coors.

Changeups are another pitch that hasn’t been as effective in Colorado, and Urias uses his changeup 18.1% of the time this season. He has a pitch mix that could result in plenty of struggles in Coors. 

Urias struggled in his only matchup in Coors this season, allowing 6 runs (3 earned runs) across just two innings. On the other side, Marquez allowed only 1 earned run over seven innings in his only matchup against Los Angeles in Colorado in 2022. This was his second-best start of the season. 

The pitching matchup is interesting, but the offenses will certainly play a major role in this game. Colorado is one of the hottest offenses in MLB, ranking fourth in team wOBA (.353) over the last 14 days. They also rank second in slugging percentage (.460). 

The Rockies have been one of the best offenses in the league at home against left-handed pitching. In those splits, they rank first in team batting average (.309), third in slugging percentage (.506) and second in OPS (.891). They lead the league in team wOBA (.386) at home against lefties as well. 

The Dodgers also feature a dominant offense, although they haven’t been quite as good as Colorado in recent games. Over the last 14 days, they rank 10th in the MLB in team wOBA (.337) and sixth in slugging percentage (.456). 

Los Angeles has also been dominant against right-handed pitching in 2022. Thus far, they rank fifth in team batting average (.254) and first in slugging percentage (.433), OPS (.765) and wOBA (.333) against righties. 

I’m solely grabbing the first five innings for two reasons. First, I want more variance with taking the underdog here. Lessing the innings will give them an easier opportunity to cash the moneyline. Second, I’m eliminating the bullpens. The Dodgers have a dominant bullpen at the moment, and the Rockies continue to struggle. 

Overall, we’re getting +160 odds on a nearly identical starting pitcher and offensive matchup. If this game were taking place outside of Coors, I wouldn’t even consider it. But the Rockies have looked elite against left-handed pitching in Colorado, and they could find success early in this game once again.

Dodgers vs. Rockies Pick: Colorado Rockies F5 Moneyline | +160 at DraftKings