Dodgers vs. Brewers Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions – August 17, 2022: Can Brewers Continue to Put Up Runs on Dodgers?

Dodgers vs. Brewers Betting Odds

8:10 p.m. ET

The Milwaukee Brewers will host Tony Gonsolin and the Los Angeles Dodgers at American Family Field tonight. I’m backing a high-end starter and quality bullpen against a struggling offense for this bet. 

Gonsolin’s found plenty of success in the MLB this season. He owns a 14-1 record with a 2.24 ERA through 21 starts. He’s posted a 3.81 xFIP in those starts, although he’s a pitcher who has consistently avoided regression throughout his career. I don’t think 2022 will be any different. 

Gonsolin has the ability to get strikeouts when needed. He owns a 23.5% strikeout rate through 116.1 innings. He also owns a 43% groundball rate, giving him multiple ways to get out of tough situations. The right-hander also owns a 7.2% walk rate this season. 

Gonsolin owns relatively similar splits, although he’s been slightly better on the road. His strikeout rate jumps to 24.6% and his xFIP drops to 3.57. He’s also been a reverse-splits pitcher, holding left-handed batters to a 3.61 xFIP in 2022. 

Outside of a short stretch, Gonsolin’s been relatively untouchable this season. He’s allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 18 of his 21 starts. He’s also held his opponents scoreless in six starts this season. 

Gonsolin gets an interesting matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers. They’ve found plenty of success against right-handed pitching. Since July 16th, the Brewers rank 10th in the MLB in average (.258) and second in slugging percentage (.476) and OPS (.815) against righties. 

This doesn’t tell the whole story, though, as they’ve been struggling in recent games. Milwaukee ranks 24th in the MLB in team wOBA (.288) and 22nd in slugging percentage (.353) over the last 14 days. 

The Brewers have scored three or fewer runs in four of their last five games. They’ve also scored two or fewer earned runs against four of the last five right-handed starters against them. Jimmy Yacabonis is in this group, though, and he only threw one inning as an opener against them. Miles Mikolas and Adam Wainwright combined for 17 innings, though, allowing only 3 earned runs. 

The Dodgers don’t feature the best bullpen in the MLB, but they’ve found plenty of success in recent games. Overall, Los Angeles’ bullpen owns a 3.77 xFIP over the last 30 days. This is relatively average, although they have a few dominant arms if needed. 

Gonsolin isn’t generally a pitcher that throws deep into games, although he has the ability to if his opponent is swinging early in the count. I’m expecting him to find plenty of success in this particular matchup, and the Dodgers bullpen should be able to handle business later in the game. The Brewers are a sputtering offense, and I’m not expecting them to turn it around in this difficult of a matchup. 

Dodgers vs. Brewers Pick: Brewers Team Total Under 3  | +104 at FanDuel