Cubs vs. Brewers Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions Today – July 5, 2022

Ready to lock in your MLB bets? OddsJam’s MLB expert breaks down his top pick and prediction for today’s slate. Find the over @BalesSJustin is eyeing below.

Cubs vs. Brewers Betting Preview

8:10 p.m. ET

Jason Alexander and the Milwaukee Brewers will host Kyle Hendricks and the Chicago Cubs tonight. We’re backing two of the hottest offenses in MLB against two struggling starting pitchers. 

Alexander has thrown well early in his MLB career. At least his baseline metrics make it appear he has. He’s recorded a 2-0 record with a 3.82 ERA through seven games (five starts) this season. He’s due for quite a bit of regression, though, as he also owns a 5.01 xFIP in 2022. 

Alexander is a sinker ball pitcher, giving him the opportunity to get out of difficult situations with a 50.5% groundball rate this season. With that being said, he has virtually no strikeout potential, adding variance to each batter he faces. 

The right-hander has given up 7.3% barrel and 42.2% hard-hit rates this season. He’s posted an xFIP over 5.00 in three of his last four starts as well.

It’s only a matter of time before he gets rocked in the first few innings of a game. 

Alexander’s innings are limited so it’s difficult to trust his splits. With that being said, he’s struggled in Milwaukee against both-handedness. Overall, he’s been better against right-handed batters, which should work slightly in his favor tonight. 

The Cubs are expected to utilize a right-handed heavy lineup tonight. It may not matter, though. They’ve been one of the best offenses in MLB in recent weeks. Over the last 14 days, they rank third in the league in team wOBA (.355) and fourth in slugging percentage (.454). 

Chicago has also been an above-average offense against right-handed pitching. The Cubs currently rank 11th in the league in OPS (.721) against righties. 

On the other side, Hendricks will continue to be an uninspiring option for the Cubs. He has posted a 4-6 record with a 4.76 ERA through 15 starts this season. His ERA is backed by a 4.49 xFIP as well. 

Hendricks is a flyball pitcher without much strikeout upside. He’s struggled with 9.8% barrel and 38.7% hard-hit rates in 2022 as well. 

A key here is Hendricks’ struggles outside of Chicago. His xFIP jumps to 5.18 on the road this season. His strikeout rate also drops on the road while his flyball and hard-hit rates increase. He’s drastically worse against left-handed batters this season as well. 

Milwaukee isn’t an offense that is loaded with left-handed batters, but the Brewers are expected to utilize five tonight. Their right-handed batters have found plenty of success in recent games as well, and Hendricks isn’t a pitcher I’m worried about in terms of handedness. 

They’ve been hitting at an elite level for quite some time now. The Brewers lead MLB in team wOBA (.366) and slugging percentage (.494) over the last 14 days. Over that span. Milwaukee and Chicago rank first and second in the league in runs scored. 

The Brewers have also found plenty of success against right-handed pitching throughout the season. They currently rank third in MLB in OPS (.749) against righties. That OPS jumps slightly at home as well. 

These two teams both have somewhat reasonable bullpens. It isn’t a situation that I’d completely avoid, though. I’m fine taking the odds on the entire game here, even if that means we’ll see quite a few innings of the bullpen. If that’s the case, both of the starters likely struggled anyway. 

The Brewers have quietly posted 4+ runs in 11 of their last 12 games. Over that span, they covered the 9-run total twice themselves. The Cubs have been significantly more up and down in recent games, but they’ve posted 6+ runs in four of their last eight games. 

Both of these teams have flashed the ability to cover the total themselves in recent games. We’re banking on Hendricks’ road struggles continuing and Alexander to find the regression that is going to catch up to him shortly.

I love this number for two of the hottest offenses in the league in a more hitter-friendly stadium.

Cubs vs. Brewers Pick: Over 8.5 | -115 at DraftKings