Brewers vs. Pirates Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions: Expect the Brewers to Tee Off

MLB Best Bet Today – August 3, 2022

7:05 p.m. ET

Tyler Beede and the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Milwaukee Brewers at PNC Park tonight. We’re backing one of the hottest offenses against a bad relief pitcher starting in what should be a bullpen game. 

Beede’s found plenty of success this season. He owns a 1-1 record with a 3.12 ERA through 23 games. He’s thrown as a relief pitcher, though, adding to the volatility of his numbers. He’s struggled with a 4.74 xFIP, and that should even out as he throws more innings. 

Beede isn’t a strikeout option, recording only a 13.6% strikeout rate through 40.1 innings. He does boast a 49.2% groundball rate, though, which is concerning. It’s the easiest way for him to work his way out of tough situations. He’s also held his opponents to a 0.67 HR/9 in 2022. 

Another key for Beede here is that he struggles with control. He owns a 9.6% walk rate, and this has been something he’s struggled with throughout his career. 

The right-hander hasn’t thrown more than 3 innings in a game yet this season, and it will be interesting to see if Pittsburgh is willing to stretch him out today. Regardless of that or if it’s a true bullpen game, Milwaukee will be in a great spot to score runs early in this game. 

The Brewers have been the best offense in the MLB over the last 14 days by a wide margin. They lead the league in team wOBA (.378) and slugging percentage (.526). A big factor for the matchup against Beede is that Milwaukee also leads the MLB in walk rate (10.8%) over that span. 

Milwaukee’s also found plenty of success against right-handed pitching. They rank fifth in the MLB in average (.269) and first in slugging percentage (.495) and OPS (.845) since July 1st against righties. Continuing that success, they rank first in ISO (.227), third in wOBA (.360), and fourth in wRC+ (131) in that situation. 

The Brewers have scored 3+ runs against 6 of the last 7 right-handed starting pitchers they’ve played against. Only two of them threw more than 5 innings, and those were each 5.1 innings. Over that span, they’re averaging 4.3 runs per game against those starters, although a trio of them threw less than 5 innings. 

Oddly enough, the Brewers haven’t been a dominant early-game team, ranking 16th in the MLB in runs scored in the first five innings (2.51) this season. They’re playing at a significantly higher level than they were early in 2022, though, giving them a huge edge in this game. 

Beede’s best pitchers are his sinker and changeup, but he could be forced to rely more heavily on his 4-seamer if Milwaukee can get ahead in the count. The Brewers aren’t the best offense against sinkers, but they’ve found some success against changeups. They feature a few players who are outstanding against 4-seamers. 

Overall, I like the matchup against Beede, but that isn’t the only reason for this play. There’s a very real chance that he gets pulled after 3 innings and this turns into a bullpen game. If that’s the case, Pittsburgh’s bullpen has struggled over the last 30 days. 

Regardless of who is on the mound, Milwaukee should have the advantage They’ve been getting to right-handed pitchers early in recent games, and I’m expecting that again tonight.

Brewers vs. Pirates Pick: Milwaukee Brewers F5 TT o2.5  | -105 at DraftKings