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Ready to lock in your MLB bets? OddsJam’s MLB expert breaks down his top pick and prediction for today’s slate. Find the over/under bet @BalesSJustin is eyeing below.
7:10 p.m. ET
We have an interesting situation in the Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets game tonight. On one side, we have an elite starter against a good offense. On the other side, there’s a reasonable arm against a struggling offense.
We’ll be backing both of those starters for different reasons in this game.
Corbin Burnes will take the mound for Milwaukee. He’s been a dominant pitcher in the MLB for the third consecutive season. Burnes boasts a 3-4 record with a 2.48 ERA through 12 starts. He also owns a 2.75 xFIP through 72.2 innings.
The 2021 Cy Young winner has struggled in his last couple of games. He allowed 5 earned runs over only 3.2 innings against the San Diego Padres. He also only threw 4.1 innings in his last game against the Philadelphia Phillies after Milwaukee struggled in the field.
Overall, Burnes has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in nine of his 12 starts this season. He also threw at least six innings in eight of those nine starts.
Essentially, Burnes has the ability to throw deep into games, giving up very few runs in the process.
He’ll face off against New York, who has seen mixed offensive results in recent games. They rank 16th in the MLB in team wOBA (.314) over the last 14 days. The Mets rank third in the league in OPS (.758) against right-handed pitching, although that number dips a bit at home.
Burnes’ advanced metrics all look completely fine, and he’ll have every opportunity to show why he won the Cy Young award last season tonight.
On the other side, David Peterson has found plenty of success early this season. He boasts a 3-0 record with a 3.00 ERA through eight games (six starts). He’s due for regression, though, as he owns a 4.28 xFIP in those games.
Oddly enough, Peterson has been worse at home throughout his career, which generally isn’t the case for young pitchers. Regardless, Peterson isn’t the reason I’m betting against the Milwaukee offense.
The Brewers have been ice cold in recent games, posting a .267 team wOBA over the last 14 days. That ranks second-to-last in MLB to only the Detroit Tigers. Furthermore, Milwaukee ranks 25th in the league in OPS (.654) against left-handed pitching this season.
This is a simple case of betting on Corbin Burnes and betting against the Milwaukee offense when dealing with the starters.
It was difficult to choose between the full game under or the first five innings under because of the bullpens. Milwaukee’s bullpen ranks ninth in the MLB in xFIP (3.72) over the last 30 days. This isn’t a concern, and I feel comfortable backing them.
New York, on the other hand, hasn’t been as successful. The Mets rank 18th in the league in bullpen xFIP (4.02) over that span. With that being said, they have a few shutdown arms that they’re likely winning to use, especially if this game is close.
Ultimately, Burnes can throw deep into the game, and I’m willing to take a chance on Milwaukee’s offense continuing to struggle. Taking the full game gives us 7 full runs to work with, and that adds some margin of error for the pitchers.