Braves vs. Phillies Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions Today – June 30, 2022

Ready to lock in your MLB bets? OddsJam’s MLB expert breaks down his top pick and prediction for today’s slate. Find the under @BalesSJustin is eyeing below.

Braves vs. Phillies Betting Pick: Under 8.5 | -110 at FanDuel

6:06 p.m. ET

Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies will host Ian Anderson and the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park tonight. We’re backing the pitchers in this game, but we’re also avoiding two injured offenses at the same time. 

Nola is a dominant starter who has found plenty of success this season. He owns a 4-5 record with a 2.98 ERA through 15 starts. His dominance is backed by a 2.88 xFIP, which ranks as the best on the slate. 

Nola is due for quite a bit of regression in Philadelphia as well. He posted a 4.10 ERA, which sits well above his 2.96 xFIP through 41.2 home innings. He also boasts a 2.57 xFIP against right-handed batters this season. Atlanta is expected to utilize six right-handed batters with Matt Olson being the only dangerous left-handed batter in their lineup. 

One more aspect that is a key to this play is Nola’s success early in the game. He owns a 2.88 xFIP the first time through the order. He also hasn’t given up a home run his first time through the order this season. Nola’s xFIP drops to 2.52 the second time through the order as well, and I expect him to find plenty of success through the first five innings of this game. 

The Braves offense is dealing with several injuries, and they’ve cooled off in recent games. Over the last 14 days, Atlanta ranks 18th in team wOBA (.310). Unsurprisingly, they’ve found success against right-handed pitching throughout the season, but that’s as a healthy offense. 

Atlanta will be without Ozzie Albies again tonight. Eddie Rosario is also on the IL, but he’s been out for quite some time. A key here is that Ronald Acuna Jr. is questionable to play tonight. He hasn’t played in a few days, and it’d be a massive blow to the Atlanta offense if he’s ruled out again tonight. 

Ian Anderson has seen mixed results through 14 starts this season. He’s posted a 6-4 record with a 4.60 ERA through 14 starts. He’s due for some positive regression, as he owns  4.28 xFIP through 74.1 innings. 

Anderson has been a better pitcher on the road this season. He owns a 3.55 ERA with a 3.98 xFIP through 45.2 road innings. Similar to Nola, Anderson has thrown significantly better early in games. His xFIP increases from 3.54 the first time through the lineup to 4.25 the second time and 5.98 the third time.

He’s clearly the pitcher to worry about in this game, but he gets a great matchup. 

Philadelphia has been struggling in recent games, ranking 26th in team wOBA (.282) over the last 14 days. They’ve only been an average offense against right-handed pitching throughout the season as well, and that was at full health. 

Similar to the Braves, the Phillies are struggling with several injuries at the moment. The biggest key is that Bryce Harper won’t be in the lineup tonight. Jean Segura and Johan Camargo are two more players who are injured at the moment. 

Ultimately, we’re backing an ace and a solid starter against two offenses that will feature players like Darick Hall, Bryson Stott, Mike Ford and Orlando Arcia. This is just to name a few, as there are other options that the pitchers should find plenty of success against. 

There are two reasons that we are backing the full game under rather than the first five under. First, Nola should be able to throw deep into this game. He’s thrown seven or more innings in five of his last six starts. The Phillies have a reasonable bullpen, but they should only need to rely on their relievers for a couple of innings in this game. 

Second, Anderson isn’t a player who can be trusted all that much. With that being said, the Braves feature an elite bullpen, and they should be able to handle plenty of innings in this game. Both teams should have the ability to send out dominant pitchers against two struggling offenses throughout this game.