Braves vs. Phillies Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions: Count on Aaron Nola & Spencer Strider in First 5

Ready to lock in your MLB bets? OddsJam’s MLB expert breaks down his top pick and prediction for today’s slate. Find the bet @BalesSJustin is eyeing below.

Braves vs. Phillies Betting Preview

7:05 p.m. ET

Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies will host Spencer Strider and the Atlanta Braves tonight. We’re looking to back two elite arms against offenses that haven’t been producing as well as many would hope in recent games. 

Nola is throwing at one of the highest levels of his career. He’s posted a 6-7 record with a 3.13 ERA through 19 starts. His ERA is backed by an elite 2.95 xFIP, which is the second-lowest of his career. 

Nola hasn’t been as dominant of a groundball pitcher in 2022, but he does still boast a 45.8% groundball rate this season. He also owns an outstanding 28.1% strikeout rate and he’s held his opponents to a 0.92 HR/9 this season.

Essentially, Nola doesn’t give up easy runs (home runs and walks), and he has the ability to get out of difficult situations with his strikeouts or groundballs. 

He’s a pitcher who thrives early in games. Nola owns 2.92 and 2.72 xFIPs his first and second times through opposing lineups. He also hasn’t allowed any home runs his first time through the lineup this season. 

Nola has been dominant against right-handed batters in 2022. His groundball rate increases to over 50%, and he boasts a 2.40 xFIP against that handedness. That’s extremely important for his matchup against Atlanta tonight. 

The Braves are expected to use five right-handed batters. The only left-handed batter that is worrisome is Matt Olson, as Eddie Rosario, Michael Harris and Robinson Cano are less than dominant batters. 

Atlanta’s been struggling a bit in recent games. They rank 16th in the MLB in team wOBA (.311) and 10th in slugging percentage (.423) over the last 14 days. These numbers aren’t necessarily terrible, but they aren’t numbers for one of the best offenses in the league. 

The Braves have also seen mixed results against right-handed pitching this season. They rank 14th in the league in average (.244), third in slugging percentage (.438) and seventh in OPS (.742). 

Atlanta essentially features a boom or bust offense that relies heavily on power. Nola is the type of pitcher who can slow down that type of offense. 

Strider will take the mound for Atlanta. He’s found plenty of success throughout the 2022 season. He boasts a 4-3 record with a 3.03 ERA through 21 games (10 starts). He’s also recorded a 2.53 xFIP through 74.1 innings. 

Strider owns a 40.6% groundball rate this season. He doesn’t generally use double plays to get out of tough situations, as he owns a ridiculous 37.9% strikeout rate. He’s held his opponents to a 0.48 HR/9 as well.

The biggest difference between Strider and Nola is that the former is willing to issue a free pass at times throughout his starts. 

Strider doesn’t boast big splits, as he’s similar against either handedness or wherever he’s throwing. He is dominant early in the game, though. He owns an absurd 1.91 xFIP his first time through the lineup as a starter. He also owns a 2.58 xFIP the second time through the lineup. 

The biggest sign of regression is that Strider owns a 4.57 ERA his first time through the lineup as a starter, and he’s due for plenty of positive regression. 

The right-hander’s seen mixed results at times this season, as he’s given up 5 and 6 earned runs in two of his 10 starts this season. He’s allowed 1 or fewer earned runs in six of those 10 starts, though. 

Strider gets a solid matchup against Philadelphia tonight. The Phillies have been struggling recently, ranking 25th in the MLB in team wOBA (.286) and 19th in slugging percentage (.391) over the last 14 days. 

Similar to Atlanta, Philadelphia’s seen mixed results against right-handed pitching. They rank 16th in the league in average (.243), eighth in slugging percentage (.412), and 10th in OPS (.714). 

Once again, I’m siding with an elite starting pitcher against a struggling offense. I do believe both offenses have the capability to find success against anyone, but Nola and Strider are throwing too well at the moment.

Braves vs. Phillies Pick: F5 Under 3.5 | -102 at FanDuel