Braves vs. Mets Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions Today – July 11, 2022

Ready to lock in your MLB bets? OddsJam’s MLB expert breaks down his top pick and prediction for today’s slate. Find the bet @BalesSJustin is eyeing below.

Braves vs. Mets Betting Preview

7:20 p.m. ET

Max Fried and the Atlanta Braves will host Max Scherzer and the New York Mets tonight. We’re taking full advantage of elite pitching in this game. 

Fried’s throwing at one of the highest levels in baseball. He boasts a 9-2 record with a 2.52 ERA through 17 starts. His ERA is backed by an elite 2.94 xFIP in 2022. 

Fried has the ability to get strikeouts in tough situations, although he isn’t an elite strikeout pitcher. Instead, he boasts a dominant 50.3% ground ball rate, allowing him to get out of difficult situations with double plays. Furthermore, he’s held his opponents to an outstanding 26.8% hard-hit rate this season. 

Fried’s found plenty of success this season. He’s given up 2 or fewer earned runs in 13 of his 17 starts, including each of his last 4 starts. Furthermore, the Braves as a team have allowed 1 or fewer runs in 5 of Fried’s last 7 starts. 

The Mets have been struggling in recent games, ranking 22nd in the MLB in team wOBA (.301) over the last 14 days. They also rank 20th in slugging percentage (.384) over that span. 

New York’s also struggled against left-handed pitching throughout the season. They rank 18th in the league in average (.242), and 20th in slugging percentage (.381) and OPS (.701) against lefties in 2022. Their slugging percentage and OPS also dip slightly on the road this season. 

Scherzer’s also been a dominant arm this season. Through only 9 starts, he’s posted a 5-1 record with a 2.26 ERA. He also boasts a 3.03 xFIP through 55 innings this season. 

Scherzer doesn’t rely as heavily on ground balls to find his success. He boasts an outstanding 32.7% strikeout rate, and he’s limited opponents to a 23.4% hard-hit rate in 2022. He’s an elite arm who’s struggled with home runs throughout his career, but he boasts an outstanding 0.81 HR/9 early this season. 

Although it’s in limited innings, Scherzer’s been better on the road this season. He’s also been elite against right-handed batters, which is important for this matchup. 

The right-handed ace returned from injury in his last game, throwing 6 shutout innings against the Cincinnati Reds. Overall, Scherzer’s given up 3 or fewer earned runs in eight of his nine starts this season. The Mets as a team have also given up 3 or fewer earned runs in three of Scherzer’s last four starts. 

Atlanta features a right-handed heavy offense, which will work in Scherzer’s favor tonight. They’re an offense that’s been on fire, ranking fourth in the MLB in team wOBA (.351) and slugging percentage (.477) over the last 14 days. 

The Braves have found plenty of success against right-handed pitching this season as well. They currently rank eighth in the league in average (.248), third in slugging percentage (.439), and sixth in OPS (.750). Each of those numbers increases at home as well. 

Although the Braves offense has found plenty of success recently, I’m comfortable backing Scherzer. He looked elite in his first game back, and there are some reports that he was angry that he was forced to miss any time this season due to injury. If you watched the way he approached his minor league rehab starts, you know how insanely competitive he is. 

I’m also comfortable taking the full game total on this because of the combination of starting pitchers and bullpens. Fried and Scherzer both have the ability to throw deep into the game. New York and Atlanta also both feature bullpens with 3.55 xFIPs over the last 30 days. This ranks as one of the best marks on the slate. 

It’s a bit shocking that we’re getting plus odds on under 7 runs in this game. There is always some concern with an offense as hot as Atlanta’s, but I’m backing the elite arms in this game over one great offense.

Braves vs. Mets Pick: Under 7 | +105 at DraftKings