Best MLB Home Run Prop Picks – Daily MLB HR Props: Adames Continues to Dominate Right Hand Pitching

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Colton DetermannSeptember 21, 2022 at 01:35 PM

OddsJam’s MLB expert takes you through the best MLB player props today. See the best Home Run prop picks for tonight’s games.

Best Daily MLB HR Prop Picks Today – September 24, 2022

Brewers vs. Reds Home Run Prop Pick: Willy Adames | +370 at FanDuel

6:40 p.m. ET

Today’s home run prop is on a guy that has been scorching hot lately and someone who has absolutely had their opponents number all year this year. Willy Adames faces off with Graham Ashcraft of the Reds and he has had some very solid outcomes in a limited amount of at bats.

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Through six plate appearances, Adames has tallied a pair of hits off of Ashcraft and they both happened to go for home runs. In his last 10 games, Adames has picked up the pace a bit as he has hit 3 homers in that span so I love that he is swinging that bat well coming into this game.

When facing the Reds this season, Adames has played in 17 games and has gone off for eight of his 31 total home runs. He has also hit 26 of those 31 home runs against right handed pitching so his power clearly comes while hitting the right handed pitchers. Ashcraft hasn’t had a bad year when it comes to giving up home runs as he has only allowed nine on the season but eight of those are against right handed batters and remember, two of those nine belong to Adames this year.

Sometimes a pitcher just has a matchup where the batter has his number and this might be one of those games. Take a chance on Willy Adames to get ahold of another pitch tonight.

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Previous Home Run Picks

Best Daily MLB HR Prop Picks Today – September 23, 2022

Red Sox vs. Yankees Home Run Prop Pick: Aaron Judge | +220 at FanDuel

7:05 p.m. ET

Happy Friday and welcome back to another home run prop! Tonight we are on Aaron Judge watch as he sits at 60 home runs, one behind Roger Maris and the AL record of 61.

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The Yankees are taking on the Red Sox tonight after a walk off win last night and this game could be just as good. Rich Hill is on the mound for Boston tonight and while Judge doesn’t have the best numbers against him I still like his chances tonight.

In 11 plate appearances, Judge is only batting .182 off of Hill with a pair of singles but Hill has been getting hit around a bit more lately. Outside of his start against the Orioles recently, he has allowed at least 4 runs in three of his last four starts and he even let up a home run to the Rays bringing him to 12 total allowed on the year.

Judge is an elite talent and as long as he doesn’t get walked multiple times tonight I do expect him to tie the record. Hill lives on his offspeed pitches so look for him to hang a curveball to Judge tonight.

Home Run Prop Pick Today:

Best Daily MLB HR Prop Picks Today – September 22, 2022

Cubs vs. Pirates Home Run Prop Pick: Oneil Cruz | +420 at FanDuel

6:35 p.m. ET

Our home run prop for today comes from a game between a pair of teams not playing for anything other than a draft spot this evening. When teams that will not be making the playoffs hit this point in the year they often start experimenting with younger players to try and determine who has a shot for the next year.

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This evening, the Cubs are starting Hayden Wesneski who only has three starts on the year. He was called up at the beginning of September and appears to have earned a spot for the time being. In 15.2 innings pitched, he has allowed 2 home runs with both coming against the Giants.

Oneil Cruz, our target player, should have a great chance to go yard today off of this pitcher. On the year, he has 17 home runs and 14 of those have come off of right handed pitching. At this point in his career, Cruz is much better at hitting right handed pitching other than just based off of his power numbers. He has a .244 batting average against righties which isn’t special but it is much better than his overall average of .218. His ISO numbers are also very impressive as he sits at a .279 so he is hitting the ball very hard.

Cruz is continuing to settle into the big leagues and while the strikeout numbers are concerning, his power is undeniable. Be on the lookout for one of his frozen rope home runs tonight.

Home Run Prop Pick Today:

Best Daily MLB HR Prop Picks Today – September 21, 2022

Brewers vs. Mets Home Run Prop Pick: Rowdy Tellez | +350 at FanDuel

2:10 p.m. ET

After cashing in on our first two home run props of the week we are right back in the Brewers and Mets series for today’s prop. Today we are looking at Rowdy Tellez as the Brewers face off with Taijuan Walker in some afternoon baseball!

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Tellez is having a great season when it comes to hitting for power as he has 32 home runs on the season and 28 of those have been off of right handed pitching so already we can tell that he is a righty killer. In his last 10 games he has four home runs including a two home run game. That span of games includes a pair of home runs in the first two games of this current series against the Mets.

When it comes to playing in day games compared to night games Tellez is better during the day. He has a .235 average with 18 home runs in 57 day games compared to a .213 average with 14 homers through 83 night games. Walker has had a very solid year on the mound. He is 12-4 with 3.42 ERA and he has only allowed 13 homers as well. As of late, the long ball has bitten him a bit though.

In each of his last three starts he has allowed a home run and over half of his allowed home runs have also been on the road. While these players match up well against each other we will also have the wind to aid us as it will be blowing out over 10 miles per hour. Conditions will be good for home runs so take a chance on Rowdy Tellez as we look to go for three straight prop cashes.

Home Run Prop Pick Today:

Best Daily MLB HR Prop Picks Today – September 20, 2022

Brewers vs. Mets Home Run Prop Pick: Pete Alonso | +290 at FanDuel

7:40 p.m. ET

It’s time for another Dinger Tuesday! We are fresh off of cashing our Ty France prop at +420 yesterday now let’s do it again! Today we are eyeballing the Mets first baseman, Pete Alonso as he and the Mets take on Aaron Ashby and the Brewers.

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Coming into this game, Alonso has been swinging the bat pretty well. He has 3 home runs over his last 10 games and that includes a homer just last game. He now has 36 home runs so it hasn’t been a bad year by any means for the Polar Bear. Something to take note of with Alonso is that over half of his home runs have come on the road. Some guys actually prefer playing on the road to be away from the pressures of home and maybe that is the kind of guy Alonso is.

Aaron Ashby has allowed 14 home runs over 96.1 innings pitched this season which isn’t horrible by any means. However, when you look at his recent starts you’ll notice that the longball has been biting him recently. He has allowed at least 1 home run in four of his last five starts which isn’t great when you have to turn around and face the Mets. Take a chance with Pete Alonso to go yard again today in a great matchup.

Home Run Prop Pick Today:

Best Daily MLB HR Prop Picks Today – September 19, 2022

Mariners vs. Angels Home Run Prop Pick: Ty France | +420 at FanDuel

4:07 p.m. ET

Today’s home run prop comes via the Mariners as they take on the Angels today! Jose Suarez is on the bump for the Angels today and that opens the door for Ty France to have a great afternoon.

He has faced Suarez a total of 14 times and those plate appearances have resulted in a .333 batting average with a home run. On the season, France has 19 total home runs and he actually already has a home run in the current series as he homered in the series-opening game a couple of days ago.

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Against the Angels this year, he has 2 home runs but has actually struggled overall with a .208 average against the team. I don’t see that continuing today as he has a pitcher on the mound who he has hit well and he comes into the game playing decently.

Suarez has only allowed 12 home runs this season but in three of his last four starts, he has allowed a home run so the long ball is coming back around to bite him a bit recently after a solid season. Take a look at Ty France to go yard off of Suarez again as the Mariners continue their playoff push.

Home Run Prop Pick Today:

Best Daily MLB HR Prop Picks Today – September 18, 2022

Red Sox vs. Royals Home Run Prop Pick: MJ Melendez | +370 at FanDuel

1:35 p.m. ET

For our home run article today we are looking at someone new! MJ Melendez is our player to target today as the Royals face off with the Red Sox in some Sunday afternoon baseball!

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Melendez has only had three plate appearances against Nick Pivetta in his short career so far and only has 1 hit but that hit was a home run so he must have been seeing Pivetta well in that game. Melendez has been on a cold streak when it comes to home runs. His last one was back on September 3rd but today is a great spot for him to get back on track.

He has 15 total home runs on the year and seems to be a guy that goes on short bursts of power. Generally when he hits a home run it is after a strong game at the plate the previous day. Last game out was a 3 hit performance for MJ so he should be coming into today swinging with confidence.

With Melendez swinging the bat well coming in and Pivetta going through a stretch of allowing home runs I like the value on this prop. On top of all of this, the wind will be blowing out to dead center around 15 miles per hour so there could be multiple home runs in this game but I believe MJ will account for one of those.

Home Run Prop Pick Today:

Best Daily MLB HR Prop Picks Today – September 16, 2022

Brewers vs. Yankees Home Run Prop Pick: Aaron Judge | +280 at FanDuel

To begin our weekend we have a little American League vs. National League action with the Yankees versus the Brewers this evening! We will be targeting Aaron Judge to go yard this evening as he is chasing down the AL home run record of 61.

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Judge currently sits at 57 home runs on the year and recently he has picked his pace back up a bit after a little bit of a slump. He has hit 5 home runs over his last 10 games and that includes a two homer performance just two games ago against the Red Sox.

Of his 57 home runs, 44 of them have come off of right handed pitching which is good for us as Adrian Houser will be throwing for Milwaukee. Houser doesn’t typically allow a ton of home runs as he has only allowed eight total in 91.2 innings pitched but he has also never faced Aaron Judge. Houser has had only three games this season where he has allowed multiple home runs but it shows that even he has games where he is off his game just a bit. Aaron Judge is on a mission currently and I fully expect him to get there. Look for Judge to notch home run number 58 tonight.

Home Run Prop Pick Today:

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