Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions for August 7: Value in this Home Run Prop

OddsJam betting expert @NorthSideCapper is back with his favorite profitable player prop bet of tonight’s MLB slate.

New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox Pick: Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run | +240 at FanDuel

Monday, August 7 | 8:10 p.m. ET

The struggling New York Yankees currently sit 4.5 GB of a Wildcard spot in the American League, but luckily for them they are in Chicago to take on one of the worst teams in baseball – the Chicago White Sox. If the Yankees are to make a push for a playoff spot, players like Aaron Judge will really have to pick up the pace and carry the load for this squad.

Speaking of Judge, he has been struggling as of late and it just seems as Judge goes, so do the Yankees which speaks volumes about the squad’s depth, but that’s a story for another day. Judge will be entering the batter’s box squaring off against White Sox starting pitcher Dylan Cease who has been inconsistent for the better part of the 2023 campaign boasting a 4.61 ERA as he enters tonight’s matchup.

Using the OddsJam Positive Expected Value tool, we can see big gaps in the lines currently being offered on Judge’s HR prop tonight. Interestingly enough, while we see differences upwards of 70 cents, there is still a level of respect attached to Judge as none of the lines are ‘disrespectful’ for a player of his calibre. The best line on the board is FanDuel’s +240 when backing Judge to go long against the White Sox tonight, while other books such as Caesars is offering a measly +170 for the same wager – again, 70 cents of value pending where you lock your bet in. Let’s take a look into why we love this bet tonight below.

Cease has had his ups and downs throughout the season. His strikeout numbers are still relatively high averaging seven over his last 10 starts, but he has been somewhat vulnerable to the long ball giving up at least one homer in five of his last 10 starts while walking two batters per start.

Cease has faced off against the Yankees three times in his career and they haven’t gone very well, with the most recent being a 15-7 loss last season on May 22, ultimately conceding six earned runs and giving up two bombs. We expect Cease to deal with some of those ongoing struggles tonight against some of the better Yankee hitters such as Judge.

Speaking of Judge, he himself has been struggling as of late. He has gone hitless in six of his last 10 games and has not gone long in seven games with his last HR being back on July 29th against the Baltimore Orioles.

In eight plate appearances against Cease throughout his career, Judge boasts a .400 batting average and an expected batting average of .354. Judge has not gone long vs Cease in any of those eight plate appearances, but given his ability to go long combined with Cease’s recent struggles to contain opponents from hitting homers, we think the recipe for success is here and Judge gets back into the HR column tonight in Chicago.

Always shop around especially on player props, as you see, we are getting 70 cents of value tonight on Judge’s home run prop and we encourage you to lock it in with us and hopefully cash a big ticket tonight.