Fantasy football has blown up recently, including daily fantasy as well. So, because of the increased popularity in fantasy, there has also been increased popularity in betting on NFL player props as well.
It makes sense, as more and more kids have grown up as fans of players as opposed to fans of teams or cities. Sometimes, it is more fun to bet on Patrick Mahomes throwing for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns than it is betting on the Chiefs. With this rise in popularity, it is also important to understand how to, you know, make money betting on NFL player props as well.
I will detail two strategies, both of them profitable.
NFL Positive Expected Value Betting on NFL Player Props
This doesn’t just apply to NFL player props, but betting positive expected value is the easiest way to become a lucrative sports bettor, and of course that does include NFL player props as well.
The definition of positive expected value is betting on plays that you know, as the sports bettor, have a higher win % than the implied odds of the sportsbook that you are placing the bet with. In this case, the plays will be NFL player props.
That probably sounds wordy and confusing, so let’s break it down.
The screenshot above is from a positive EV play pulled from OddsJam, and the play is Austin Hooper over 24.5 receiving yards at +100 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. The OddsJam Perfect Line, which is pulled from the sharpest sportsbooks in the world, prices this at -102.33. These are the odds that are directly to the right of the FanDuel icon.
Breaking this down, the “true line” of this bet is priced at -102.33, while FanDuel is offering it at +100, making this a profitable NFL player prop. The nice thing about the OddsJam Positive Expected Value betting tool is that you can filter specifically for NFL player props.
Another way I like to describe positive EV betting is like flipping a coin that is weighted 55% towards heads, but the person you are placing the bet with doesn’t know that, so is still giving you 50/50 odds. You have the advantage, knowing it is going to land on heads at a higher % than the odds you are getting.
This is the first way to make money betting on NFL player props, with the second method being detailed next.
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The OddsJam NFL Screen
The next way, which is just as profitable, is using the OddsJam Screen. It requires a little more digging, but it is a great tool. The way the OddsJam Screen works is you choose a specific market, and then the screen will show you where every single sportsbook is pricing that market.
This screenshot above details the value of using the OddsJam Screen. The play is Jared Goff to go over 240.5 passing yards. As the screenshot shows, pretty much every other book prices Goff’s passing yards prop to be in the 250s, ranging from 250.5 to 252.5, whereas we are getting that 10-12 yards lower on FanDuel.
This is why the screen is so valuable, because this player prop wouldn’t show up on the positive EV page, despite being a great play.
No matter how you spin it, OddsJam provides great tools to make money betting on your favorite NFL players. Questions? Reach out to us! We would love to hear from you [email protected].
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