How do Positive EV Sports Betting Filters Work? Sports Betting Strategies, Tips, Advice
Lots of people have asked “How do the Pro Filters on the OddsJam Positive EV Tool work? Why do they make me more money? Why should I place more bets from the Positive EV betting tool?”
Let me know if this answer helps / doesn’t help…I’m trying to write more to help OddsJam users profit, so here’s my stab at it. All feedback is welcome, just email [email protected]!
Sports Betting Odds
If you think about the sports betting industry, at the core, it’s just hundreds of operators setting lines. They all basically do the exact same thing: accept bets. However…they all want to be unique. For that reason, sportsbooks for the most part set lines independently. DraftKings does not want the exact same odds as FanDuel.
This makes sports betting fascinating because bookmakers have different “prices” for the exact same bets. It’s like going to a supermarket and seeing 100 different prices on a Kit Kat.
Obviously… a rational person would buy the cheapest Kit Kat 🙂
The same thing goes with sports betting. Since mobile sports betting is getting legalized in so many states, it’s easy to compare odds and always get the best line with OddsJam. It’s not like you have to walk to a different casino in Las Vegas to get the best odds – you can simply open up a different mobile app on your iPhone.
In the example below, the Buffalo Bills are best offered at -130 odds at FanDuel. So, if you’re planning to bet on the Bills, then you should definitely place your wager at -130 at FanDuel as opposed to -145 at WynnBet. Why would you bet $145 to profit $100 at WynnBet when you can stake just $130 to win $100 at FanDuel? It makes no sense!
Why are Sports Betting Filters Necessary?
There’s a spectrum of sportsbook “sharpness” / “smartness” / “market efficiency” – not every sportsbook is created equal. Additionally, no sportsbook is “perfect” or “never wrong.” Pinnacle, BetOnline, Heritage, Circa, etc. are all sharp books of varying degrees. The BetFair Exchange (which recently launched on OddsJam!) is also very sharp.
OddsJam has more real-time data (e.g. odds) and historical data than any other provider, so we use it. Since no sportsbook is always correct, the “Recommended Filters” on the Positive EV Betting Tool takes a more conservative approach to sports betting. The filters ensure that a bet is Positive EV to the no-vig fair odds of a variety of sharp bookmakers.
OddsJam is already processing millions of odds every second, so we thought that we might as well dial in the most profitable bets to every sportsbook, not just Pinnacle.
How are Filter Weightings Determined?
As you’ve probably seen on the OddsJam EV/Arbitrage Screen, some books seem to “slip up” more and have bigger issues with setting odds. These less sophisticated books have more profitable betting opportunities.
OddsJam, of course, has practically limitless historical data. We also have the game outcomes, which is why our Bet Tracker can auto-grade bets. With machine learning, we aggressively test and fine-tune the weightings to ensure that filters only show users the most profitable bets.
Why do I See Less Bets?
With recommended filters turned on, you only see the most profitable bets. These are the bets we’re most confident in. It’s not that turning filters off will make you unprofitable. Rather, we recommend that new sports bettors start with filters turned “On” until they learn the ropes of sports betting and market efficiency.
You can bet the Positive EV page with the recommended filters turned on blindly and make money. It’s really that simple. Track your profit and loss with the OddsJam Bet Tracker and see for yourself!
Since Filters Work, Why Not Just Bet Yourself?
First of all, I do. Second of all, watch any of the OddsJam YouTube videos below. Sportsbooks can impose betting limits. That means you can’t bet unlimited amounts of money on your wagers. Some sportsbooks will limit “sharp bettors” to $20 per bet, and others will limits “sharps” to $200 per bet. It really depends.
But, long story short, nobody wants to bet on sports full-time. It’s a fun & profitable side hustle, and that’s it. This is why all “professional” sports bettors in the industry are total scam artists! It’s not an attractive/lucrative professional career, so the “pro bettors” are just trying to sell you something.