Understanding And Profiting off Tennis Betting Systems

<p>AP Photos</p>

AP Photos

Finding the best betting system might seem tricky. A lot of forums, blogs, and tipster sites are promising guaranteed profits with low risk.

The majority of them want to get your attention and take your money. But betting techniques based on mathematics are proven to be the best ways to win in sports betting. In this article, we will present the best betting system for tennis: Positive EV Betting.

What is Positive EV Tennis Betting?

Have you ever thought about how the betting odds are generated? We all know that the higher they are the lesser the chance is to actually win our bet, but the payout is higher too. They are representing the probability of that outcome to win. The bookies are trying to calculate the statistical chance of teams and other outcomes like handicaps, point totals, etc.

In most cases, they can predict these fairly close to the real probability. Historical data about previous events and the most recent news about players physical and mental stages is making it possible to generate the most accurate odds. No matter how much information a bookie has about a player or team, there will be a bookmaker with better and more precise data. This discrepancy is making it possible to get different odds for the same bookmaker.

How Do We Find Value Bets?

Smart bettors want to take advantage of these odds differences between bookies. It is well known that some of them are better at generating accurate odds than others. The best example of this is Pinnacle Sports. During the past ten years, they were the best in defining the real probability of an outcome.

Profitable Tennis Betting Systems

Positive Expected Value (EV) betting is based on bookmakers with sharp (accurate) odds.

Your only task to be successful in betting is to find better odds and betting lines than their real probability. Fortunately, most bookmakers are making mistakes and they offer overpriced markets. These can happen if they are missing information or getting it too late.

For Example:

  • The favorite team has a moneyline odds of -225 which means a ~69% chance to win the meeting
  • Most bookmakers will get the information that a key player is missing from them
  • This fact will lower their chance to win the match to 60% which has an odd of -150
  • Some bookies might get this information too later, so you can take advantage of the initial moneyline odd of -225

Based on mathematics if you can find a lot of these opportunities, in the long run you will end up in massive profits.

The key element of this system is to make sure that you are placing bets on odds way over their expected probability.

Before you continue reading, we have to mention that this system is:

  • Viable
  • Proven by a lot of bettors
  • Easy to learn and very profitable

Is Tennis a Good Sport to Bet On?

Based on our experience, tennis is one of the best sports for value betting. After a little bit of research, you can find out that the majority of bettors also think that tennis is one of the top three best sports to bet on.

In most cases, tennis is not a team sport, which is an important factor for us. Every piece of information about players can have a big impact on their chance to win. Even minor injuries or problems in personal lives can affect the odds.

The biggest opportunities, wrong odds and best value bets you will get are by betting on tennis in-play(also known as live betting). The match is fairly fast and even the worst player can offer surprises. These unforeseen events are causing intense odds fluctuations. Every time the odds are moving fast, a lot of bookies are making mistakes. These are good opportunities to place bets with positive expected value.

Many bettors have been following tennis players for long years and they might know almost all of their strengths and weaknesses. In a lot of cases, they can define their real chance better than most bookmakers. Unfortunately, having this level of knowledge takes a lot of years and experience. For us, the best option is to find a bookmaker that is the best in defining the real chance of a player or outcome.

In-play betting on tennis is a good way for making a lot of money, but betting before the match can offer a more predictable result.

What are “Fair Odds” or “True Odds” in Tennis Betting?

Value betting is the best and most profitable betting system for tennis. But defining the true odds, in this case, can be a little bit tricky.

Bookies can predict soccer match results fairly accurately. A minor change in lineups or missing a not-so-important player will not have a great effect on odds. This and the big sample of historical data is helping odds providers to offer fairly sharp odds.

On the other hand, tennis is a single-player sport in the majority of cases. Most bookmakers don’t have the resources to gather every bit of information about players. It’s already a general phenomenon that smart bookmakers like Pinnacle are offering an opening odd and the majority of bookies are following theirs.

Even Pinnacle can’t figure out the sharpest odds for players. These betting lines and odds are evolving based on the general opinion of the bettors. A lot of bettors are smart enough to define the true chance of a tennis player, so they are taking advantage of these first and wrong odds.

You can see major odds movements because of these bettors.

True Odds in Tennis:

The closer the starting time of a match is, the more accurate the odds are. So, if you are planning to make money with positive expected value bets, the best timing to follow sharp bookies is right before the match starts or In-play. Based on our experience, Pinnacle is offering the sharpest odds/lines for:

  • Handicap lines
  • Total points lines
  • Match winner

Finding these overpriced markets manually is almost impossible. It takes a lot of time and effort and you still won’t find enough.

Bookmaker scanner services like OddsJam are the biggest support for smart bettors. Their algorithms are scanning the major sports and markets so you don’t have to. The software is comparing the odds between bookies (based on your applied filters) and every significant odd difference is displayed.

Why is Value Betting Most Profitable in Tennis?

Many systems are based on mathematics. One of them is arbitrage betting. The basic technique is similar to value betting. Your task is to spot overpriced odds. Arbitrage betting is the least risky system because after finding odds differences between bookies, you are betting on every possible outcome.

First, you take advantage of the overpriced market (For example moneyline odds of +110) and then cover the other outcome at another bookie on the true odds (which can also be 110). No matter who wins you can get 5% of your total stake as a guaranteed profit. But based on our experience, value betting is a better method. Taking only the wrong odds without covering the other outcome will offer you way more profits.

An example of arbitrage betting could be betting on both teams, or players in our case, to win the game. By taking Positive EV lines from OddsJam and value betting, you are guaranteed a profit regardless of outcome. It’s a great way to make some cash stress-free.

Of course, you need to take more risks, but if you can place bets only on overpriced markets, you will win more in the long run.

Why is Positive EV the Top Tennis Betting System?

  • 50% – 80% more profits in the long run (than at arbitrage betting)
  • You can place smaller stakes for the same profit, so the bookies won’t spot your activity so fast
  • No need to use calculators for the right stake
  • Proven and working system even without too much knowledge about sports

How Much Money Can I Earn Tennis Betting?

The amount of profit you can make with value betting on tennis depends on several factors:

  • How many bets you can place
  • The expected value on your bets

Finding bigger mistakes will generate more profits in the long run. A value bet opportunity of 1% most of the time is not enough for a stable income. Finding better opportunities like bets with 3% – 6% over the true odds (compared to Pinnacle for example) will result in fewer bets lost and more profits.

  • Your starting capital

With more money, you can place more bets at the same time and also with higher stakes.

  • Odds range

Based on our experience, placing bets between moneyline odds of 50 and 200 will reduce the variance.

The amount you can make is influenced by luck too. In the long run, mathematics will always take the place of variance/luck, but sometimes you can experience losing streaks of even 10 bets. The good part of this system is that luck can be on your side too. Winning 10-13 bets in a row is not so uncommon.

Best Tournaments for Tennis Betting:

Choosing the best tournaments can be tricky. Generally speaking, bookmakers are making way more mistakes on smaller tennis tournaments like ITF’s or Challengers.

In theory, you can make a fortune on these. Even odds 10% above their true probability are not rare. But bookmakers are aware of their incapability to offer sharp odds for these matches every time. This situation is forcing them to treat bettors with more caution. Placing a bet on ITF matches with wrong odds can lead to a fast limitation of your betting account.

Don’t feel tempted by the big value opportunities on these tournaments. Following only WTA and ATP matches will cause you less problems in the long run.

Best Markets for Tennis Betting:

As mentioned above, Pinnacle is offering the sharpest odds and lines on handicap, total points and match-winner markets. We’d advise betting only on these for the highest return. 

How to Bet on Tennis and Win

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