PrizePicks NBA – How to Win on PrizePicks with Sharp Player Props

In this article, I’m going to take you through seven sharp player prop picks on PrizePicks. I have two flex play entries, and I’m staking $350 total. I think I have the best MLB, NHL and NBA player props on PrizePicks.

PrizePicks Strategy: How Does PrizePicks Work?

First, let’s take a step back… How does PrizePicks work in the first place?

Before we break it down, if you haven’t signed up for PrizePicks yet you can do so here. Be sure to use promo code ‘ODDSJAM’ for a deposit match up to $100.

At its core, PrizePicks is a fixed payout platform. In other words, PrizePicks does not change payouts based on the picks you select.

Any 5 pick entry will have the following payout structure:

1. 5/5 Picks Correct: 10x Payout
2. 4/5 Picks Correct: 2x Payout
3. 3/5 Picks Correct: 0.4x Payout

It doesn’t matter if you take 5 golf picks, 3 NBA picks & 2 MLB picks or any other combination of sports/leagues. Any 5 pick entry pays out according to the structure above.

As seen in the betslip above, I had a combination of 2 NBA picks, 2 MLB picks and 1 NHL pick in a PrizePicks 5 flex. I staked $400 on this Flex Play and won 4 out of 5 picks, so my payout was $800 (2x for 4/5 correct). Pretty simple…

Because we know the fixed payouts behind PrizePicks, we can back out what percentage of our player prop picks we need to win on PrizePicks to be profitable. For 5 flex plays, it’s 54.25%, and all of the sports betting math is broken down in this Google Spreadsheet.

In other words, if you can select your over/unders (e.g. James Harden over/under 34.5 PRAs) correctly at a percentage above 54.25%, then you’ll be profitable on PrizePicks. It’s that simple. It doesn’t matter if you’re betting on the NBA, MLB, PGA or tennis. If you win over 54.25% of your picks on PrizePicks, then you’ll beat this fantasy sports platform long-term.

So How Does PrizePicks Make Money?

PrizePicks does not charge a direct “fee” whenever you place an entry. That’s not how this platform works.

Rather, PrizePicks makes money because most sports bettors cannot win at least 54.25% of their over/unders. If you have no “edge” or advantage in sports betting, then you’ll win 50% of your player prop picks on PrizePicks, and you’ll lose the other 50%.

PrizePicks knows that most customers cannot win at least 54.25% of their player prop picks, so they make money off the average sports bettor long-term. That’s their business model. It’s not easy to win 55% of your picks (only losing 45%).

So What’s the Strategy for Beating PrizePicks?

The sports betting math behind PrizePicks is relatively straightforward: win at least 54.25% of your picks, and you’ll be profitable long-term on this fantasy sports platform.

Thus, beating PrizePicks boils down to one thing and one thing only: finding player props that have a win rate above 54.25%. To do this, we turn to the sportsbooks…

To beat PrizePicks, we want to find player props that are heavily favored to win according to sportsbook odds.

As an example, one player prop bet that I went with on PrizePicks is Andrew Heaney Over 4.5 Hits Allowed. It may seem like a “random” MLB pick, but it’s not. This is a profitable player prop that I found on the OddsJam Positive EV Tool.

As seen in the screenshot above, all sportsbooks have Andrew Heaney’s Over 4.5 Hits Allowed as the favored outcome. Just look at the ‘prices’ (e.g. odds) on Heaney’s Over 4.5 Hits Allowed on sportsbooks:

1. Caesars: -152 Odds
2. DraftKings: -150 Odds
3. Fliff: -155 Odds

The average odds for Heaney Over 4.5 Hits Allowed is -142. The sportsbooks posting odds are essentially data points – they’re all data points that are telling us the same thing: Andrew Heaney’s over is the heavily favored outcome.

Again, all we’re trying to do is find player props that have a win rate above 54.25%. The only rational, data-driven way to do this is by comparing the lines on PrizePicks to those on the sportsbooks.

Sportsbooks tell you win probabilities for bets through their odds. As an example, if a team is -200 moneyline odds, then that team is a 2:1 favorite to win the game. A 2:1 favorite means 2/3 to win (e.g. 66.67%).

As seen earlier in this PrizePicks tutorial, Andrew Heaney Over 4.5 Hits Allowed had an average line of -142 odds. It’s no different in this situation… The sportsbooks are telling you that Heaney is a lot more likely to give up 5+ hits as opposed to 0-4 hits.

The OddsJam sports betting software is updating 1,000,000+ betting lines every second to point the rare, few player props on PrizePicks that are actually profitable. You don’t ned a bet on every team or every game… Out of the 10,000+ lines available on PrizePicks, you’re just looking for five sharp picks that are winning over 54.25% of the time.

The vast majority (over 99%) of player prop picks on PrizePicks are not profitable. PrizePicks doesn’t screw up often… You’re hunting for 5 lines that are available on PrizePicks which sportsbooks have juiced to around -140 odds.

Here’s another example of a profitable pick on PrizePicks: Alek Manoah Under 4.5 Ks. As seen in the screenshot above from the Positive EV Tool, all sportsbooks have Manoah’s under heavily favored.

Regardless, I like to show that I put my money where my mouth is. I staked $150 on Andrew Heaney Over 4.5 Hits Allowed on PrizePicks.

My five picks on PrizePicks are as follows:

• Andrew Heaney Over 4.5 Hits Allowed
• Joey Lucchesi Over 4.5 Ks
• Jaylen Brown Over 33.5 P+R+A
• Jayson Tatum Under 9.5 Rebounds
• Mitch Keller Under 5.5 Ks

As a sharp bettor, I simply follow the market & hunt for 5 profitable player prop picks. I don’t care if I’m betting on the MLB, NHL, Tennis or the NBA – I just want to place the most profitable bets. I was able to find three sharp MLB picks, as well as two profitable NBA player props.

The Fantasy Screen is the 2nd betting tool that I use to find sharp player prop picks on PrizePicks. A screenshot from the Fantasy Screen is above.

Similar to the Positive EV Tool, the OddsJam Fantasy Screen uses sportsbook odds to find the sharpest picks on PrizePicks. Thus, these betting tools have some overlap – you’ll see Andrew Heaney is on the Fantasy Screen in the second row.

The Fantasy Screen sorts player props by win rate. As seen in the screenshot above, Joey Lucchesi over 4.5 Ks is the most profitable player prop currently available on PrizePicks. This MLB prop has a win rate of 57.42%. Since you only need to win 54.25% of your player props on PrizePicks to be profitable, we definitely want to take Joey Lucchesi over 4.5 Ks.

Sportsbooks have Lucchesi’s over priced around -155 odds. FanDuel has Lucchesi’s over 4.5 Ks all the way up at -194 odds, so this player prop has clear value.