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PrizePicks 12 Days of Picksmas, Best Bets, Picks, and Predictions

<p>AP Photos</p>

AP Photos

This Christmas season PrizePicks will have the “12 Days of Picksmas” promotion starting on December 14, 2022. Each day there will be a different promotion to unwrap and we have you covered here to find the best picks and strategies.

Day 6: Holiday Sweater Party

Day 6 of PrizePicks Picksmas! 2-Pick Powers with both players wearing sweaters payout 4X! *Only 2-Pick Powers that only contain players wearing Holiday Sweaters are eligible to be boosted. All entries must be placed on 12/19 and only contain players in action on 12/19. Only the initial 3X will appear in the app and be paid out as normal. The additional 1X boost will be paid out at Noon ET on 12/20 as promo funds. 1H, 2H, and 4Q picks will not be boosted.

2-Pick Power Play #1

I’m going to be honest, I’m not the biggest fan of this promo. Anytime a promo involves a book picking what players you can bet on, it’s kind of a big red flag. However, I did manage to find two good plays within this promo.

Leg one is Aaron Rodgers less than 21 pass completions. The line has moved a half point up at most books, giving them some security in the fact that there can’t be a push. PrizePicks has stayed at 21, but with the trend being that Rodgers is going to pass for 21 or less, if it pushes we get a refund and if it hits we get a payout. I’m willing to roll the dice here.

The second leg is Giannis over 10.5 rebounds. I managed to catch this one early as this line on other books is certain to move up as it has on underdog. With the line at 10.5 the book’s odds are heavily favoring Giannis to get 11+ rebounds, so let’s lock it in.

2-Pick Power Play #2

The first leg of the next power play is Jordan Clarkson less than 3.5 assists. No line movement here, but the books are all in agreement Clarkson is most likely to go under 3.5 assists. If you look at the historical stats, too, you’ll see he generally does hit this under.

The second leg is Giannis over 3.5 turnovers. You can see above DraftKings has moved their line a whole 2 points to 5.5. Looking at Giannis turnover history, I like the over-3.5 line just based on that. When you have the ball as much as he does, it makes sense there will be a lot of turnovers.

Day 5: QB Discounts Under the Mistlethrow

Unfortunately, the last two days have not been conducive to a write-up on the day’s promo. However, we’re back today with QB discounts. ?

The Discounts

  • Dak Prescott over 1.5 Pass + Rush + Receiving TDs
  • Justin Herbert over 271.5 Pass Yards
  • Daniel Jones over 0.5 Pass TDs

There’s many different ways to take adavantage of this promo. Theoretically, you could stack all of these together into a 3 leg parlay. However, I am opting to use each of these as a “free square” in 3 seperate parlays. *Note: These discount plays could still lose. Nothing is guarunteed with these 7-50 percent discounts, but it makes the odds a lot better.

2 Leg Parlay

Like I always say, the less legs on a PrizePicks parlay, the better. This is my play where I practice what I preach. Justin Herbert is the discount here so, obviously, we’re taking the over. For reference, his normal line is set at 305.5 yards on most books.

The second leg is Sam Darnold Over 25.5 pass attempts. You can see some massive line movement on this one, which is a pretty good indicator we should be taking the over. PrizePicks is set at 25.5, other books have moves to 26.5, and some have gone all the way to 27.5!

5 Leg Parlay

For all you degenerates out there, I’ve got a 5 leg parlay just for you. The first leg of this one is Daniel Jones over 0.5 Pass TDs and this is the discounted play for Picksmas.

The second leg is Michael Badgley over 6.5 kicking points. We’re going with this one because every book is favoring Badgley 7+ kicking points pretty heavily. The books exist to set odds for these markets so, if they’re all in agreement, we’re going to roll with it.

The third leg is Justin Fields over 13.5 pass completions. I pay attention to FanDuel on this market because they will offer passing attempts and passing completions as live bets throughout most of the game. Since they do this, they’re incredibly accurate on the line, and they just moved it up a whole point.

Fourth leg, Sam Darnold over 168.5 passing yards. This line is criminally low 168.5 passing yards. Every other book is higher, and FanDuel is all the way up to 180.5!

The final leg is Dak Prescott over 246.5 passing yards. Again, if every book is almost 10+ yards above another books line, we can expect for there to be value in the over of that lower line. Hammer that over 246.5!

Day 2: The Misses Clause

A risk-free bet on PrizePicks! It’s not often we see free bets here, so we’re going to take full advantage.

5 Leg Parlay

Yes, just yesterday I said, “stay away from 5 leg parlays!”, but this is a risk-free bet and that changes everything. I want to maximize the value in this since if it loses I get the $20 play back. We can deal with the more conservative play tomorrow if this doesn’t hit.

This first leg is Ja Morant over 26.5 points. I’ve been using the OddsJam Screen to keep an eye on the line and odds movements and we already have an advantage here with other books moving his line a point higher while PrizePicks line has stayed the same.

The second leg, Giannis over 31.5 points. Same strategy as Ja in this one. Giannis’ line has gone to 32.5 everywhere except PrizePicks.

Third leg, Zion Williamson over 7.5 rebounds. There’s no line movement on this play (yet) but the books are all in agreement that he is most likely to go over 7.5 rebounds. Further, if you look at his recent stats he very consistently gets 8+ rebounds, so, I’m locking this in.

Sticking with the same game, the 4th leg of the parlay is Jarred Vanderbilt over 18.5 points + rebounds + assists. I like this for a variety of reasons, the first being the odds are very favorable. The second is the lower total. The third is Jarred Vanderbilt is a young double-double machine! 10 points and 10 rebounds = this leg hits.

The final leg is Jordan Clarkson over 23.5 points + rebounds. I jumped on this play because the odds on this are becoming more favorable (denoted by the green rectangle) and that is typically an early indicator of the entire line moving up a point or two.

Day 1: Merry Madness

Play a certain amount of money, and get a free entry to win x dollars! These types of promos can be very profitable if you play them the right way. Below I’ve put together a 2-pick and a 3-pick play. Since every leg you add to these parlays is just another chance for it to lose, I stick with 2 and 3 legs only.

2 Leg Play

The first leg of this parlay is Jerami Grant over 20.5 points. Using the OddsJam Screen it was really easy to see this discrepancy in the line. Every other book has moved the line to 21.5 but the PrizePicks line stayed at 20.5! Take that over every time.

The next leg is Josh Giddey over 14.5 points. Using the OddsJam Screen there wasn’t a line discrepancy, but the odds favor Josh Giddey to go over 14.5 points.

3 Leg Play

The first leg is Luka Doncic over 2.5 3-pointers made, and, all you have to do is look at the screenshot below to see why it’s a good play. Everyone is in solid agreement on this one!

The second leg is Anfernee Simons over 20.5 points. Just like Jerami Grant above, the line is moving but PrizePicks had not.

The third leg is Jaden Ivey over 13.5 points. This one is a super-value play! Not only did the UnderDog line move to 14, but FanDuel has moved its line to 14.5.

Always remember the most important thing when betting PrizePicks is: you don’t know as much as you think. Never bet based on your gut, bet based on the numbers. If you have any questions about the odds screen, OddsJam, or sports betting in general email [email protected]

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