Updated Odds Based on Game Status
Sportsbooks odds are constantly changing based on the actual status of a game. Injuries, weather and other factors change odds and create what is called line movement.
For example, if a football team’s star quarterback is not projected to play, the line will likely a few points in favor of the opposition. Quarterbacks generate the biggest line movement but other impact players can move lines by a few points, or if there’s a number of smaller injuries.
In Week 13 of the 2022 NFL season, the Miami Dolphins opened as roughly +170 on the moneyline in their road matchup against the 49ers. The line moved down to +150, as sharps were betting on the Dolphins early in the week. Following news that Miami would likely be without their two starting offensive tackles, the line moved back up to +170.
The sportsbooks are always in the know before sports bettors. If a line has already moved against a team with concerns surrounding a player’s availability, it’s safe to assume that player isn’t likely to play.
Weather is also a factor that influences sportsbook odds. In outdoor conditions with projected win or rain, totals are often affected. Obviously, heavy storms are going to favor the under, as points become very difficult to come by in poor weather conditions.
Weather conditions can also play a factor in spread bets, as heavy underdogs can get a bit of a line movement in their favor. For example, there was line movement in favor of the Cleveland Browns when they were supposed to face the Buffalo Bills in Buffalo. There was a snowstorm on its way and the line moved a bit in favor of Cleveland, as less points being scored tends to favor an underdog covering the spread.
While that game was ultimately moved to Detroit, it’s an example of how weather can affect line movement.
Beating the Odds
The sportsbooks obviously make money off sports bettors losing, but they also make plenty of money from those who have a net even or slightly above average winning percentage. That is because of the vig, or the juice charged by the sportsbooks, as mentioned above.
In order to secure a long term profit sports betting, you must be line shopping for bets that are +EV, or positive expected value. This is because of how hard it is to make a long term profit betting.
A 50% success rate sports bettor will not make a long term profit or break even if they are placing bets that have a large amount of juice. They’ll be at a rather substantial net loss, actually.
The only way to beat the odds for certain is mathematically. Luckily, OddsJam has a number of tools to help you do just that! Click here to check out which plan is right for you!