Cubs vs. Giants Player Prop Bets Today – July 31, 2022: Look for Carlos Rodon to Dominate
MLB Best Bet – July 31, 2022
Chicago Cubs (41-59) vs. San Francisco Giants (50-51)
7:00 p.m. ET
I am going to target the Sunday Night baseball game with today’s pick. I am going to take an alternative line for strikeouts on Fanduel. I believe this line will close at 8.5, so I am trying to get ahead of the game.
This is a terrific spot for Carlos. I am always more tempted to play him when he is at home. In 8 home starts, he has a 2.05 ERA with 63 K in 44 innings (1.43 per inning). 4 of his last 5 starts have been on the road, so I am sure he is excited to be back at SanFran.
You could make an argument that Rodon is the game’s top strikeout guy. He is 5th in the league in strikeouts. He ranks in the 89th percentile in K per inning, 87th percentile swinging strike percentage, 90th percentile in K rate, 81percentile in whiff rate, and 81st percentile in chase rate. His slider is amongst the game’s best pitches. Despite giving up some runs so far this month, his K rate has gone up to 34.1 over the last 30 days.
The Cubbies are one of the league’s top targets for K. They average the 7th most K per game at 8.81 and see a small uptick to 8.85 on the road. They have 30 K per in the last 3 games, so feels like a good time to shoot for a line this high. They have the 9th highest K rate vs LHP over the last 30 days at 25.2%.
They have the 4th worst contact percentage on pitching inside the zone, 4th worst contact percentage on chased pitches, and swing and miss at the 4th most pitches in the league. After watching Alex Cobb K 11 Cubs last night, I like Rodon’s chances at 9, especially at +142.