Daily WNBA Picks, Odds & Predictions: Back the Lynx in a Final Playoff Push

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Griffin QueenAugust 12, 2022, 01:30 PM

Our WNBA expert breaks down his top plays and predictions for this today’s slate of games! Find out the picks he is eyeing below.

WNBA Best Bets Today – Sunday, August 14, 2022

Minnesota Lynx vs. Connecticut Sun Betting Preview

1 p.m. ET

We’ve officially reached the final day of WNBA regular season games, and with playoff seedings and match-ups still up in the air, we have some hugely important games to look forward to.

Starting the day off are the Minnesota Lynx (14-21) against the Connecticut Sun (24-11) at 1 p.m ET. With essentially opposite records, this one should likely go the way of the Sun, but we’re going to take a big swing on some highly desirable looking odds.

The first thing to acknowledge is that the Lynx haven’t beaten the Sun yet this season. In back-to-back games in late July, the Lynx lost to the Sun first by 12 points and then by 7 points. So, at the very least, we can say that there was improvement on a game-to-game basis, but there’s not too much that we can draw from those match-ups considering they happened within a 72 hour span. The Sun are clearly better than the Lynx, and their head-to-head records and overall records support that, but they also have a bit less to play for, with their playoff entry already guaranteed. 

That’s not to say they have nothing to play for, as a win for the Sun this weekend and a loss for the Seattle Storm in their game with the Las Vegas Aces would catapult the Sun into the #1 seed, but in such a top-heavy conference, the difference in opponent is likely negligible – the Sun have won and lost to both the #3 seed Washington Mystics and the #4 seed New York Liberty this season, and should expect a match-up advantage over both of them.

If the Lynx don’t win their game with the Sun, they will officially lose any shot at making the playoffs, being unable to surpass the 15-20 Phoenix Mercury, no matter the result of their final regular season game. With such heavy stakes to this final game, we can expect the Lynx to come out hard early and try to set the tone for the entire game – both the Lynx and Sun fall right in the middle of the league in pace (7th and 6th, respectively), so it will remain to be seen if the Sun can keep up and take over with their superior talent and coaching. 

We’ll be taking the Minnesota Lynx moneyline, available for +310 at FanDuel. The oddsmakers and the money coming in thus far clearly favor the Sun, but with the Lynx season coming down to this final game, they’re going to swing big for the win and we’ll be doing the same.

Minnesota Lynx vs. Connecticut Sun Betting Pick: Lynx Moneyline | +310 at FanDuel

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WNBA Best Bets Today – Friday, August 12, 2022

Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx Betting Preview

Before we jump fully into the weekend, we’ve got a full slate of WNBA action – even this late in the season, playoff seedings are still up for grabs, so we have some fairly important games to look forward to tonight.

Specifically, we’ll be looking at the Seattle Storm vs. the Minnesota Lynx at 9 p.m. ET. 

The first thing we have to acknowledge is that this is not a match-up of equals, regardless of what the odds may indicate.

The Storm are 21-13 on the season, while the Lynx are 14-20, and in their three match-ups so far this season, the Storm have won by double digits twice.

They score at a similar rate but the Storm defend at a significantly better rate, allowing only 77.8 PPG vs. the Lynx allowing 83.4 PPG. Not only that, but the Storm are much better at forcing turnovers; 12.7 combined steals/blocks per game vs. only 8.9 for the Lynx.

When it gets down to it, the Storm have proven time and again this season that they’re the better team – but it does have to be noted that the Lynx have far more to play for, as their spot in the playoffs is not guaranteed, while the Storm are guaranteed to be the #2 seed in the West, regardless of tonight’s result.

So while there is a possibility that the Storm rest their starters and allow the Lynx into the playoffs tonight, I think it’s more likely that they try to build some momentum going into the playoffs, as they’ve only gone 5-5 recently and need to get into a groove prior to their first round match-up.

With this being the case, I’ll be taking the Storm -115 at BetMGM.

Considering the results so far this season, and their clear advantages almost everywhere, this line seems oddly beneficial to the Storm, so hit it hard if you get the opportunity.

Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx Betting Pick: Storm Moneyline | -115 at BetMGM

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WNBA Best Bets Today – Thursday, August 11, 2022

Chicago Sky vs. Las Vegas Aces Betting Preview

10 p.m. ET

On Thursday night, WNBA fans are getting what may be a preview of this year’s WNBA Finals – the 25-9 Chicago Sky will be taking on the 24-10 Las Vegas Aces, and this one just about promises to be a barnburner.

With both teams currently multiple games up on the number two seeds in their respective conferences, the result of this one likely won’t sway the seeding for either division. Although the Connecticut Sun could conceivably still catch up to the Chicago Sky.

Even if there isn’t chaos in the seeding, this promises to be the most talented match-up in the WNBA, and one that is coming at a perfect time as both teams round into playoff form.

From a numbers standpoint, these teams are relatively similar – they score and get scored on at similar rates, they rebound at similar rates, and they force turnovers at similar rates.

But the Sky have the advantage in efficiency (an almost 3% lead on the Aces in field goal percentage) and they move the ball significantly better.

Now, moving the ball better and having higher assist numbers don’t necessarily mean they’re a greater threat offensively. However, it does mean that they’re harder to shut down. They have a number of players who can score at a high level, both off the dribble and off the catch.

With the playoff environment that this game is going to bring, we’ll be taking the team that defends a bit better (2 less points allowed per game) and the one that shoots more efficiency.  We’ll be taking the Chicago Sky moneyline, who are currently +105 at BetMGM.

Chicago Sky vs. Las Vegas Aces Pick: Sky Moneyline | +105 at BetMGM

WNBA Best Bets Today – Thursday, August 10, 2022

Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Betting Preview:

10 p.m. ET

We’ve got a battle for the fourth seed in the Western Conference tonight, between the 13-20 Minnesota Lynx and the 14-19 Phoenix Mercury.

With only three games left to go in the season, this one is going to be huge for the potential playoff hopes of both teams.
The reality of this matchup is that both of these teams are fairly evenly matched.

They do a lot of things at similar rates and to similar degrees of success (within 1 PPG of each other both in points scored and points given up), but while the Mercury have the slightly better record and are better at forcing turnovers (12.2 combined steals/blocks per game vs. 9 combined steals/blocks per game), they’re significantly worse shooting from the field and at collecting boards.

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While the Mercury shoot 42.6% from the field, the Lynx do so at 45.2%.

Over the course of one game, that’s likely only the difference in one or two shots made, but when you compound that with the Lynx’s rebounding advantage (37.3 vs. 31.4 per game), the stats tell a story of a team that is going to not only have more offensive possessions to work with, but one that will use them more successfully.

With that being the case, we’ll be taking the Minnesota Lynx moneyline, available for -165 at BetMGM. I expect them to win this matchup, whether they do so by an inch or a mile, and they should tie the Mercury at 14-20 in the standings when they win tonight. 

Lynx vs. Mercury Pick: Lynx Moneyline | -165 at BetMGM

WNBA Best Bets Today – August 9, 2022

Connecticut Sun vs. Los Angeles Sparks Betting Preview

10:30 p.m. ET

We’re firmly in the last week of regular season games in the WNBA and we’re coming down to the wire for the Sparks playoff chances.

With them taking on one of the strongest teams in the league (the 22-11 Connecticut Sun), things are looking less than ideal for the Sparks and their hopes of making the playoffs.

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On the season, the Sparks are averaging 79.8 PPG and giving up 85.2 PPG, whereas the Sun have essentially flipped that – they’re averaging 85.1 PPG and giving up 78.1 PPG.

Just from the start, that’s not a great sign for the chances of the Sparks, but to add insult to injury, the Sparks were stranded in the DC area on Sunday night after their upset victory over the Mystics and had to spend the night in the airport.

Even on their best day, the Sparks have a talent and coaching disadvantage compared to the Sun, and their mishaps while traveling are just going to add to those disadvantages, even if they are able to play on their home court.

While comeback stories and upset wins are always interesting, everything about these two teams is indicating that the Sun should run away with it and shut the door to the Sparks playoff chances for good.

We’ll be taking the Sun -8.5, available for -110 at BetMGM.

Sun vs. Sparks Betting Pick: Sun -8.5 | -110 at BetMGM

WNBA Best Bets Today – August 8, 2022

Dallas Wings vs. New York Liberty Betting Preview:

8 p.m. ET

With the final week of the regular season having finally arrived, we’ve got one of the last matchups between the Eastern and Western Conferences as Monday night’s only game.

The Dallas Wings will take on the New York Liberty, and they’ll be doing it from their home court in Arlington, Texas. The Wings already have the advantage going into this matchup as the significantly better team, and the home court advantage certainly won’t hurt. 

Winners of four of their last five, the Wings currently stand at 16-16, whereas the Liberty (winners of 3 of their last 5, and coming off of a loss to Phoenix) are a less impressive 13-19.

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Defensively, these teams are remarkably similar. Both give up 82.5 PPG to their opponents and both collect around 34 rebounds a game. That said, the Wings are better at forcing turnovers, and score at a more impressive clip (82.4 vs 79.1).

With the season wrapping up, and the Liberty’s playoff chances hanging by a thread, we do expect them to come out fast to try to steal this one from the better team. However, the Wings should hang on late and put this game away by at least a couple of possessions. We’ll be taking the Wings at -4.5, available for -105 at BetMGM.

Wings vs. Liberty Pick: Wings -4.5 | -105 at BetMGM

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