Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx WNBA Picks, Predictions & Odds: Can This Atlanta Squad Dream Up a Win?

The Dream may catch the Lynx snoozin’ in this critical game.

Dream vs. Lynx Betting Odds

Dream vs. Lynx Betting Preview

With the playoffs just a few games away, both the Dream and Lynx are hungry for a win.

Five of the eight playoff spots have already been locked in the 2022 WNBA season, and the Dallas Wings are a single win away from taking the sixth spot. This leaves The Atlanta Dream and Phoenix Mercury (at 14-18 and 14-19, respectively) in prime positions to take the final playoff spots.

However, The New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx (13-19 and 12-20, respectively), are within striking distance of an upset. 

Both teams have been on something of a hot-streak. The Dream have won both games in August (91-81 vs. the Fever and 88-86 vs. the Sparks). While the Lynx lost an 89-77 match against the Storm on Wednesday, August 3, they have still delivered a strong second-half of their season, winning nine of their last 16 games. That includes a 92-85 win against the Dream on July 28. 

Atlanta Dream

The Dream have the fourth-best defensive rating in the league, but the second-worst offensive rating. This is made even more bizarre when tracking the team’s wins: When they win, they have the best defensive rating in the league, but the worst offensive rating in the league.

The Dream don’t win many high-scoring matches, marking their defense as the biggest variable. In essence, if the defense can hold the opposing team, it’s anybody’s game. 

Their inconsistent defense has made the Dream the league’s wildcard though. The Dream have won a number of games against teams that are a lot better on paper, often in low-scoring bouts. It doesn’t hurt that they are a pretty “clutch” team, going 9-6 in the 15 games considered so (the Lynx, on the other hand, are 6-12 on their “clutch” games). 

Minnesota Lynx

On paper, the Lynx are near opposites to the Dream. They have the fifth-best offensive rating, but the third-worst defensive rating.

This would seem to imply that the Lynx have the skills to overcome the Dream’s strong defense, and leave themselves open to the weak offense by the Dream … or, the Dream’s defense will stall the Lynx’s typically strong offense, while the Dream’s offense will finally have time to shine. 

Betting lines are predicting the former scenario, but I have my doubts. Yes, the Lynx beat the Dream last time, and this time will have home-court advantage.

However, last Sunday’s win was the only time that the Lynx have beaten a team with a strong defensive rating. Even while on their hot streak, the Lynx’s wins have come from teams with weaker defenses.

Dream vs. Lynx Betting Pick: Dream Moneyline | +160 at DraftKings

If the Dream’s strong defense can stymie the Lynx’s powerful offense and keep the game close, the Dream may be able to pull out an upset.

I know, it’s bizarre to call the team with a better record winning an upset, but they are the underdog here and could just as easily get blown out. The odds presented here make the Dream enough of an underdog that it’s worth taking — so long as you manage your bankroll.