UFC on ESPN 40: Santos vs. Hill Odds, Picks & Predictions – Why You Can Trust Hill’s Fight-Ending Power

UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill presents a daunting hill to climb for value betting. Step away from sensibly wide favorites and profits will rise.

UFC Vegas 59 Picks & Predictions

Thiago Santos vs. Jamahal Hill Pick: Hill by Knockout Before Round 3 | +130 at FanDuel

Light Heavyweight | Main Event | 10 p.m. ET

Jamahal Hill is a springy brute who can uncoil in the opening minutes with fight-ending power in either hand. He’s finished four of his five opponents via knockout within the first two rounds — the Klidson Abreu fight got overturned due to a positive marijuana test.

Thiago Santos hasn’t been anywhere near the same in performance or results since his gruesome injury against Jon Jones. A torn ACL, MCL PCL and meniscus robbed Santos of speed. Father time robbed him of a return to full form at age 38.

Hill is much younger, faster, stronger and doesn’t overextend on punches that Santos could otherwise leverage his striking experience to punish.

The advantages free Hill’s mental and physical attacks. Santos fights gunshy, perhaps out of a hesitative mixture of adjusting to the fight flow of a diminished body and protective cautiousness.

Sergey Spivak vs. Augusto Sakai Pick: Fight Lasts Over 7.5 Minutes | -137 at PrizePicks

Heavyweight | Main Card | 10 p.m. ET

Oddsmakers underestimate Augusto Sakai’s abilities. 

The win/loss column reflects a declining career. A closer inspection reveals that there should be plenty of gas in the Muay Thai tank.

Three of MMA’s deadliest heavyweight strikers caused consecutive knockout losses. Striking icon Alistair Overeem started the troubling trend. Sakai pushed Overeem to the limit, landing more significant and total strikes, ultimately forcing Overeem to grapple the younger fighter to the ground and pummel him while tired in round five.

Prolific kickboxer Jairhinzo Rozenstruik finishes almost all of his opponents below the elite tier. 

Tai Tuivasa started as legendary headhunter Mark Hunt’s protege. He graduated to being only the second person to knock Derrick Lewis out cold in the heavy brawler’s 37 professional fights. 

Spivak deploys a much different style than these three haymaker hurlers. Styles make fights. Spivak’s resembles a faster, chinnier Blagoy Ivanov. Both patiently await mistakes from opponents to land counter overhands and trip takedowns to work a grinding style of grappling.

Sakai defeated Ivanov by a narrow decision.

Sakai prefers to utilize impressive Muay Thai skills and a smothering style that collects points with short strikes in close and low kicks at range. That skill set scores late stoppages against low-level fighters primarily caused by attrition or judging decisions.

He’s never attempted a submission in the Octagon, nor has he won any professional bout that way. On the flip side, he’s never been submitted and holds a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-jitsu should Spivak succeed in grounding Sakai.

Spivak isn’t a particularly devastating striker by heavyweight standards. His sole UFC knockouts finished scorned former NFL Pro Bowler Greg Hardy and 1-5 UFC heavyweight Jared Vanderaa.

Spivak has never obtained a knockdown in the UFC. Worse, he struggled to outstrike 45-year-old pure grappler Alexey Oleynik in his 76th professional fight. Oleynik’s speed resembles geriatric tortoises, yet he landed a slew of unchecked leg kicks.

Sakai darts like a hare in comparison.

Spivak’s UFC record for this prop is 5-3. Top heavyweight contender before last month’s injury Tom Aspinall accounts for one miss. Walt Harris crushed Spivak with barrages against the fence in their fight. Harris fights with a far more powerful, explosive style than Sakai.

Sakai’s UFC prop record is 4-3/5-3 if counting his Contender Series win. The advantageous mark swells to 10-3/11-3 if we add Bellator.

Mohammed Usman vs. Zac Pauga Pick: Pauga Moneyline | -265 at FanDuel

Heavyweight | Main Card | 10 p.m. ET

I anticipate the tardy public will simply wager on names and muscles, trimming this fatty line to a better value.

Don’t confuse “The Ultimate Fighter” finalist Mohammed Usman with his brother Kamaru. Championship-caliber talent isn’t genetic.

The heavier Usman got dropped by Mitchell Stipe — not exactly Stipe Miocic. Stipe spent the second round showboating. Judges allowed a third round that Usman sealed for an unimpressive win.

Usman squeaked out a split decision in his last bout against Eduardo Perez. More credit goes to Perez’s nonexistent cardio than Usman’s offense.

Training alongside Elevation Fight Team assures bettors that cardio shouldn’t inhibit the lighter Zac Pagua. Team membership provides access to supremely sized and skilled wrestlers, most notably MMA’s best at heavyweight Curtis Blaydes. 

Similarly, Denver’s elevation above sea water restricts oxygen capacity, preparing fighters for grueling grappling.

Pagua has looked considerably better-rounded than Usman over the two’s respective “Ultimate Fighter” runs. Pagua owns a perfect record too. Usman sits at 7-2.

Pagua surrenders size, but I’m quite confident he’ll stand taller Saturday.