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In October, the UFC is heading to Etihad Arena in the United Arab Emirates for a massive fight night. The fights are set to begin at 2:00pm EST.
To say the least, the betting card is stacked. The headline fight is #1 ranked Charles Oliveira vs #4 ranked Islam Makhachev, competing for the lightweight title. UFC 280 also includes Sean Brady vs Belal Muhammad, Petr Yan vs Sean O’Malley and Aljamain Sterling vs TJ Dillashaw.
I’ll be going through my early betting picks & predictions in this article.
After getting stripped of his lightweight belt for missing weight at UFC 274, Charles Oliveira looks to retake his throne against Makhachev. Sportsbooks opened odds with Makhachev at a heavy favorite.
As seen in the graphic below from the OddsJam MMA Odds page, Makhachev is best offered at -185 odds on BetMGM sportsbook. Oliveira, the underdog in this fight, is +170 moneyline odds on Caesars sportsbook. Since online sportsbooks opened odds for UFC 280, lines haven’t budged in either direction.
Sports bettors should always be getting the best possible odds when making a bet. Although the difference between -185 odds on BetMGM and -200 on Caesars may seem small, it makes all the difference in terms of net profit. That is why line shopping is so critical as a sports bettor.
Charles Oliveira is obviously a beast in the Octagon. He is on an 11 fight win streak in the UFC and boasts 21 wins by submission. Make no mistake – Oliveira is a versatile fighter. He also has 9 wins by knockout under his belt.
His last three wins were a submission of Justin Gaethje, a submission of Dustin Poirier and a knockout of Michael Chandler. To say the least, Oliveira has proven himself in the UFC against top-tier opponents. Most of Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira’s losses came early in his career.
Makhachev is not going to be an easy fight for the Brazilian. Islam Makhachev is 22-1 professionally.
At UFC 280 on October 22, 2022, I think that Oliveira needs to keep the fight off the matt. Obviously, the Brazilian is a submission threat as well, but his advantage against Makhachev is on the feet and looking for opportunities once Makhachev is hurt.
This is a hard fight to make a prediction on, but I’d lean to back Oliveira early at +170 moneyline odds on Caesars sportsbook. I think +170 is too generous for the skilled Brazilian after finishing his last three legendary opponents.
The co-main event at UFC 280 on 10/22/2022 is Aljamain Sterling vs TJ Dillashaw. Although this fight is less “hyped” than Charles Oliveira vs Islam Makhachev, it should be a good battle.
As seen in the UFC odds below, Sterling is currently a slight favorite, best offered at -140 odds on BetMGM sportsbook. The best moneyline price on Dillashaw is +136 on FanDuel sportsbook.
Dillashaw was a previous challenger for the title in 2019, but he suffered a brutal loss against Cejudo. Sterling first claimed the belt in an unusual way when Yan was disqualified in their first matchup. However, he showed he has the best in their re-match, winning via split decision.
My early betting pick is Sterling moneyline at -140 odds on BetMGM sportsbook. I think he’ll get the job done against Dillashaw, and the value at -140 is insane. Aside from BetMGM, no other sportsbook is giving better than -150 odds.
Petr Yan squares off against Sean O’Malley at UFC 280 as well on October 22, 2022. When we said it’s a stacked card, we were serious…
Petr Yan is unsurprisingly a heavy favorite against O’Malley. The moneyline odds for this lightweight fight are below.
Although O’Malley has had some “highlight reel” victories in his career, his skillset does not come closing to matching that of the Russian. A wild knockout from O’Malley is always a possibility, but I think Yan will get the job done in the United Arab Emirates in October. My early prediction is Yan by decision.