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U.S. Senate Odds for Midterm Elections 2022 – Who Will Take Control of the Upper Chamber?
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President Joe Biden’s first two years serving as president of the United States have been aided by holding a majority (by tie break) in the U.S. Senate. The Nov. 8 midterm elections will see all 35 seats up for re-election across 34 states as both parties watch anxiously to see how the power balance of the upper chamber will shift.
Current Layout
Currently, the Senate is controlled by the Democratic Party. The Republican Party holds 50 seats while the Democrats also hold 50 seats. In the event of a tie on legislation, Vice President Kamala Harris casts the final vote to break the tie, effectively giving control of the Senate to the Democratic Party.
Odds and Outlook to Take Control of the House
As stated above, 35 seats are up for election in the Senate, but 24 of them have little doubt about the outcome. The other 11 races, which will determine which party holds control of the Senate come January, are as follows:
| State | Candidate | Candidate |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Mark Kelly (D*) | Blake Masters |
| Colorado | Michael Bennett (D*) | Joe O’Dea |
| Florida | Marco Rubio (R*) | Val Demings (D) |
| Georgia | Raphael Warnock (D*) | Herschel Walker |
| Nevada | Catherine Cortez-Masto | Adam Laxalt |
| New Hampshire | Maggie Hassan (D*) | Don Bolduc |
| North Carolina | Cheri Beasley (D) | Ted Budd (R) |
| Ohio | Pat Ryan (D) | JD Vance (R) |
| Pennsylvania | John Fetterman (D) | Mehmet Oz (R) |
| Utah | Mike Lee (R*) | Evan McMullin (I) |
| Wisconsin | Ron Johnson (R*) | Mandela Barnes (D) |
Heading into 2022, the Republican Party polled favorably to gain one or more seats in the upper chamber and take control. However, as the year has gone on, they have found themselves on the defensive in many key states including Pennsylvania and Ohio.
Polls give the Democratic Party a 53% chance to gain seats in the Senate. However, polls are not always accurate and the Democratic Party is on the defensive in some of its own states including Colorado and Nevada.
Betfair is not available to U.S.-based sports bettors, but it is the biggest political betting market setter in the world. At the time of writing Betfair had the odds broken down as follows:
| Democratic Party | Republican Party |
|---|---|
| +750 | -227 |
When we use the OddsJam No Vig Fair Odds calculator we can see the percentages break down to a 14% chance the Democratic Party gains seats in the senate and an 86% chance that the Republican Party gains seats. Interestingly to note, the odds are set at +200 for each party to retain 50 seats each in the upper chamber.
The U.S. Senate midterm elections will take place on Nov. 8, 2022.
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