Patrick Mahomes Futures Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for 2022 NFL Season: Former MVP Still Elite QB Without Tyreek Hill

Heading into the 2022 season, Patrick Mahomes is dealing with the biggest change he has ever had to deal with in his five-year career. In the offseason, the Chiefs traded superstar wide receiver Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins, which will now mark Mahomes’ first season as a starting quarterback without Hill.

So, how do the betting markets expect Mahomes to fare this season without the electric receiver? Well, let’s get into it.

Patrick Mahomes Regular-Season Total Passing Yards: Over/Under 4500.5

Right off the bat, this passing total seems low. This is a stat that Mahomes has gone over in three of his four years starting, and the only year he went under was back in 2019 when he injured his knee and missed roughly three games.

Based on his passing yards per game, he would have gone over this 4500.5 total with relative ease if he hadn’t gotten hurt. Keep in mind that the NFL added an extra game last season, so Mahomes will presumably have 17 games to hit this over as opposed to 16.

Assuming health, Mahomes would need to average 264 or fewer passing yards per game for this under to hit. For his career, the lowest Mahomes has gone is 284.6 passing yards per game in a season.

Now, of course, the argument for the under is we don’t know what the Chiefs offense is going to look like without Hill, as previously mentioned. What we do have is a five game sample size in which Hill missed time due to injury, and the lowest amount of yards Mahomes passed for was 284.

So, even without Hill, almost every statistic would favor Mahomes going over this total. Looking at fantasy football projections, I have Mahomes over this number as well.

Mahomes Total Passing Yards Betting Pick: Over 4500.5 Yards | -112 at FanDuel

Patrick Mahomes Regular-Season Total Passing TDs: Over/Under 34.5

This is another statistic in which Mahomes has statistically trended over in his career. Similar to the passing yards stat, he has gone over this total in every year of his career except the injury year back in 2019.

With that said, during that 2019 season Mahomes was not on pace to hit the over even if he had stayed healthy. So, it isn’t quite as easy as saying that if Mahomes could have stayed healthy he would have likely hit this over in each of his four seasons starting.

Looking at how Mahomes performed in those five starts without Hill, he threw for a total of 8 touchdowns, which would be an average of 1.6 per game.

To hit the over 34.5, Mahomes would need to average over two touchdowns per game, so he certainly is trending well below that number without Hill. But, that is a small sample size that can easily be explained away looking at each of the games individually.

While I don’t believe this is as close to a lock as the passing yards prop, I still am leaning Mahomes to go over this number. Even without Hill, until I see a year in which a Mahomes + Andy Reid led offense doesn’t light the NFL on fire, I won’t bet on it happening.

Mahomes Total Passing TDs Betting Pick: Lean Over 34.5 TDs | -112 at FanDuel

Patrick Mahomes AP NFL Regular Season MVP Odds: +800

Of course, Mahomes is still getting love looking at the MVP odds. As shown above, FanDuel lists him at +800, which gives him the second-best odds to win the MVP, tied with Tom Brady and only behind Josh Allen (+700).

So, even though his season-long player prop stats are lower than his career averages, the betting market still views Mahomes as a clear favorite to win the MVP.

With the MVP award being as much of a narrative award as it is performance based, the narrative around Mahomes winning the award is definitely there.

Of course Mahomes would need to play at an elite level, but, assuming he does, writing the narrative around the 2022 season being about Mahomes is not a difficult leap to make.

The Chiefs play in the most difficult division in the NFL in terms of preseason win total projections, while also coming off an embarrassing blown lead at home in the AFC Championship game to the Bengals. The “revenge” season narrative is there, along with the “he did this without Tyreek Hill!”

So, Mahomes MVP odds at +800 is definitely worth a sprinkle with everything considered.