Patriots vs. Dolphins Odds, Picks & Predictions: Lay Points With Home Team in AFC East Rivalry Game

This matchup between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins is one of six Week 1 games that features a divisional showdown.

Both of these teams have playoff hopes this year, with the Dolphins making the huge splash trading for wide receiver Tyreek Hill in the offseason and the Patriots making the playoffs last year. Let’s see what the betting markets think of this one.

Patriots vs. Dolphins Betting Odds Week 1

The Dolphins are among the teams that made the biggest improvements to their roster in the offseason. I already mentioned that they traded for Hill, but they also beefed up their offensive line.

They finished as PFF’s worst offensive line in all of football last year. This year, PFF ranks them as 23rd after the signings of left tackle Terron Armstead and left guard Connor Williams. They have also invested a number of high draft picks into the line as well, so there is room for improvement.

At receiver, now that they added Hill to the roster, PFF gives them the third-best collection of pass-catchers in the NFL.

All of this talent infusion was necessary for a Miami team that finished as the eighth-worst team in the NFL according to DVOA, despite finishing with a winning record at 9-8. They were strong defensively, finishing 10th in defensive DVOA, but struggled on offense so it makes sense why they paid such a premium to upgrade their offense.

With that said, none of these upgrades will mean much if quarterback Tua Tagovailoa can’t take a step forward himself. Admittedly, it is tough to truly grade a QB behind such a porous offensive line that the Dolphins had last year, but Tagovailoa struggled regardless.

PFF graded him 25th in terms of QB performance last year, behind disappointing QBs such as Daniel Jones, Jacoby Brissett and Carson Wentz. If the Dolphins want to make any noise, Tagovailoa will need to improve dramatically.

On the other side of the ball, the Patriots had an interesting season last year. They finished with a 10-7 record and made the playoffs, only to get matched up with the Bills in the first round and get blown out to the tune of 47-17.

The story of the Patriots last year was that they would blow out the weaker opponents on their schedule, but couldn’t hang with the NFL’s elite. Interestingly enough, in games where the Patriots were favored, they covered the spread by an average of 14 points. Not won by an average of 14 points — but covered by 14 points.

They played a total of 10 teams that finished the 2021 season with a winning record and only won three of those games.

Heading into the 2022 season, the betting markets seem to have soured on the Patriots. Despite winning 10 games last year with a rookie quarterback in Mac Jones, their win total for this year is set at 8.5. They did lose offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to the Raiders, and reports out of training camp state that the Patriots offense has looked ugly.

These are two teams that I am looking to fade at least early in 2022, but for this matchup specifically, I lean toward the Dolphins. They beat the Patriots both times they played last year, and they have gotten significantly better this offseason while the Patriots have gotten worse.

The OddsJam Line prices this spread at -3, but we can get it at -2.5 at FanDuel, granted with a little bit of juice at -132 odds. Be sure to shop for the best line using OddsJam’s NFL odds comparison tool before locking in your bet.

Patriots vs. Dolphins Betting Pick: Dolphins -2.5 | -132 at FanDuel