Giants vs. Titans Odds, Picks & Predictions: Back Giants to Keep This Within a Touchdown

The Week 1 NFL slate features some great games, but, admittedly, this one doesn’t quite qualify.

These two teams both finished in the 20s in terms of overall DVOA last year, with the Titans finishing 20th despite being the top seed in the AFC. The Giants, meanwhile, were a disaster last year, finishing with the second-worst DVOA in all of football.

2022 brings hope, though, so let’s see what the betting markets think.

Giants vs. Titans Betting Odds Week 1

Starting with the Titans, they were a hard team to understand last year. They had wins over elite teams such as the Chiefs, Rams and Bills, but then had some bad losses against the Jets and the Texans.

Overall, despite being the 1-seed in the AFC, as mentioned above, they did not grade well in terms of advanced stats. Unsurprisingly, they finished the year with the sixth-highest variance in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders.

So, while we can consider the Titans getting the 1-seed in the playoffs last year somewhat of a fluke, let’s look into what we can expect from them in 2022.

Right off the bat, they had a major change at wide receiver when they traded A.J. Brown to the Eagles for a first-round pick in the 2022 NFL draft. Brown had somewhat of an injury-plagued year last year, but he was still the Titans’ best receiver by a mile.

They traded Brown for the 18th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, which the Titans promptly used on a receiver when they took Treylon Burks from Arkansas, who funny enough was compared to Brown during the pre-draft process.

While it would be unrealistic to expect the same immediate production from Burks that they got out of Brown, the Titans did upgrade their second-receiver spot by trading for Robert Woods from the Rams.

At running back, all eyes will be on Derrick Henry as he attempts to prove that last year’s foot injury is behind him. Henry broke a bone in his foot midway through last year and missed the Titans’ final nine regular-season games. He did return for their playoff game against the Bengals but struggled mightily finishing with 62 yards on 20 carries (3.1 yards per carry).

On the Giants’ side, if they can even get to mediocre this year that will be a step up. The Giants have quietly been among the worst teams in the NFL for the past five seasons.

They won 11 games in the 2016 season, and have yet to win more than six since then. They haven’t even had a winning record at any point in those previous five seasons. They are now on their fourth head coach in this span, hiring Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll in the offseason.

Daboll comes to New York highly regarded, as he was the architect of the Bills’ elite offense for the past three seasons. He has his work cut out for him though, taking over a Giants offense that finished dead-last in DVOA last year and 26th the year prior. Quarterback Daniel Jones specifically has regressed in a major way the past two seasons after a promising rookie year.

With that said, it is hard to take away much from the Giants last year, as they clearly had among the worst coaching staff in all of football. The Joe Judge era was a disaster for the two years he was there, with the icing on the cake being when the Giants called a cowards QB draw on a third down in their last game of the season.

Judge was promptly fired after that game, and that was that.

Looking at this matchup specifically, I love taking the points with the Giants. The Titans are a team I am looking to fade this year, while I could see the Giants being somewhat frisky under Daboll.

To be clear, by frisky I mean they could be average, which would be a major step up from the previous five years.

Giants vs. Titans Betting Pick: Giants +6 | -110 at WynnBET