Josh Allen Futures Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for 2022 NFL Season: Allen & the Bills are Betting Favorites for a Reason

Josh Allen and the Bills head into the 2022 season as the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl, with Allen himself the betting favorite to win the MVP.

It makes sense, as the Bills have a loaded roster while Allen is entering the fifth year of his career, playing at an MVP level for the previous two seasons. Everything seems to be aligning for Allen, who has the skills and the talent around him to make the leap and win the MVP.

What do the futures odds and betting markets think? Well, let’s get into it.

Josh Allen Regular-Season Total Passing Yards: Over/Under 4320.5

Now that the NFL has 17 games, in order to hit this over Allen would need to average roughly 255 passing yards per game.

For the first two years of his career, this passing yardage total would have been out of the question, as Allen struggled mightily with accuracy in those first two years. In his first-year starting he averaged 172.8 passing yards per game on a 52.8 completion %, and upped that to 193.1 in his second-year with a 58.8 completion %.

But, it is almost as if a switch flipped for Allen entering his third season, as he has been almost a completely different quarterback since. For the past two seasons, Allen has averaged above the 255 yards per game needed to hit this over, while also averaging over a 60% completion %.

In 2020, he averaged 284 passing yards per game, and had a slight dip last year in 2021, but was still above the 255 number, averaging 259.2 passing yards per game.

In terms of weapons, the Bills are loaded. They have superstar wide receiver Stefon Diggs who is now on his third year with the Bills, and also ascending young receiver Gabe Davis. Davis, for those who remember, had an epic playoff game last year against the Chiefs in which he had eight receptions for 201 yards and four touchdowns.

Unsurprisingly, Allens passing attempts per season has gone up in every year of his career. There are a lot of factors in favor of Allen going over this prop, but let me play devils advocate for a second.

Most importantly, the Bills lost offensive coordinator Brian Daboll in the offseason, who opted to leave Buffalo to be the head coach of the New York Giants. Daboll was the architect of that offense, as the Bills head coach Sean McDermott is a defensive-minded head coach.

Daboll is known for having an incredibly pass-heavy approach, which is why Allen attempted so many passes in the past two seasons. Replacing Daboll is Ken Dorsey, who was previously the quarterbacks coach for the Bills since 2019.

Dorsey also had the title of passing game coordinator in 2021, along with being the QBs coach. While all reports out of Buffalo are that the offense is not changing, and that Dorsey is keeping the same system, that is still an unknown and possible risk in backing Allen this season.

The public never knows what goes on behind the scenes in terms of how important/impactful assistant coaches are, and we also don’t know if Dorsey will be a good OC or not. We knew Daboll was, Dorsey is an unknown.

In general, I tend to err on the side favoring Allen to go over this prop. I put a lot of value on Dorsey having the three years in the Bills system as the QBs coach, so he obviously has plenty of familiarity with Allen. It is not as though the Bills are totally starting over new on the offensive side.

Allen Total Passing Yards Betting Pick: Over 4320.5 Yards | -112 at FanDuel

Josh Allen Regular-Season Total Passing TDs: Over/Under 34.5

This is another statistic in which Allen went under in the first two years of his career while going over in the last two years.

For the previous two seasons, Allen averaged 36.5 passing touchdowns per season, which was all the way down at 15 per game for the first two years of his career.

A lot of the analysis mentioned above applies here in that the biggest question mark is how does Dorsey fare as the offensive coordinator.

Aside from that, everything else favors Allen hitting this over. The Bills presumably are going to pass a ton, Allen is an elite quarterback with elite weapons, and the Bills are projected to win a ton of games (they have the highest win total over/under in the NFL).

The Bills are also a very pass-heavy team in the Red Zone, with Allen leading the NFL in passing attempts in the Red Zone in 2021, and being fourth in 2020.

In terms of Red Zone success, Allen was graded the best QB in the Red Zone in 2021, and was second-best in 2020.

One topic that I have not yet mentioned is strength of schedule- which is middle of the pack for the Bills in terms of the difficulty of their opponents overall, as well as the difficulty of the opposing passing defenses the Bills will face.

Allen is facing the 16th easiest schedule of opposing passing defenses, which is squarely in the middle with the NFL having 32 teams.

So, adding everything up, this is another passing prop future in which I favor the over.

Allen Total Passing TDs Betting Pick: Over 34.5 TDs | -112 at FanDuel

Josh Allen AP NFL Regular Season MVP Odds: +700

As mentioned in the opening paragraph, Allen has the most favorable odds to win the MVP at +700, with the next closest being Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady at +800.

Allen being the MVP-favorite makes complete sense, as the Bills are set up for team success with Allen set up for individual success himself.

This was brought up in the Mahomes preview linked above, but the MVP award is as much narrative driven as it is performance driven, and it is easy to sell the narrative around Allen being the 2022 MVP.

After suffering back-to-back playoff defeats to the Chiefs the previous two seasons, with last years loss being particularly devastating, the Bills come into the season with one of the best rosters and one of the best QBs in the NFL.

Bills have the highest regular-season win total over/under for a reason, as they are the betting markets pick to have the best record in the NFL. So, if that ends up being the case, the starting quarterback on the top team in the NFL is almost always deserving of the MVP award.

All-in-all, betting Allens MVP odds at +700 is definitely worth a play.