Jalen Hurts Futures Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for 2022 NFL Season: Fade the QB of a Run-Heavy Offense

The Eagles have been getting some love this offseason, ever since they made the A.J. Brown trade and made some additions to the defense as well. Their win total started at 8.5, and has jumped to 9.5 across all sportsbooks, with the over still being the favored outcome in terms of the odds.

The Eagles success hinges on quarterback Jalen Hurts, though. Hurts is now entering his third season in the NFL, and has proven enough that he is at least a mediocre quarterback in the NFL, but has not yet proven that he can take that next step.

He hasn’t yet shown that type of potential, but with the Eagles a hyped up possible Super Bowl sleeper, let’s see what the betting markets think of Hurts specifically.

Jalen Hurts Regular-Season Total Passing Yards: Over/Under 3450.5

Assuming Hurts does end up playing all 17 games, he would need to average 203 passing yards per game in order to have this go over. Right off the bat, that seems like a low number when you consider some of the gaudy stats that quarterbacks have been putting up recently, but diving into Hurts specifically you understand why the market set it so low.

Last year, Hurts’ first year as the full-time starter, he averaged 209.6 passing yards per game. Admittedly, that is a higher number than I was initially expecting.

With that said, because Hurts only started 15 games, he went under this total, throwing for 3144 yards last season. He also trended significantly under this number in his last eight starts of the season, throwing for more than 200 yards only twice in that span. Both of those games were against Washington, too, who finished last year with the 28th worst passing defense in the NFL.

This stretch also coincided with the Eagles having more team success too. They started the season 2-5, but in those final eight games that Hurts played the Eagles went 6-2. After that slow start, the Eagles offensive philosophy had a complete 180, turning from a pass-heavy team to a run-heavy team.

In those same eight final starts from Hurts, his passing attempts per game (23.9) was significantly lower than his first seven starts (34.6 per game).

So, the main question is, are the Eagles going to lean on the run game like they did in the second half of last season when they had more team success, or are they going to be more pass-heavy like they were to start the season?

One point in favor of the Eagles passing more is the Eagles upgraded skill positions. They have a solid trio of receivers in the aforementioned Brown, Devonta Smith, and Quez Watkins, along with tight-end Dallas Goedert.

In a perfect world, the Eagles coaching staff would like to lean on the passing game, but that just isn’t part of Hurts strengths. The under is the value play here, especially when you consider the chance that Hurts misses a game or two again due to injury.

Hurts Total Passing Yards Betting Pick: Under 3450.5 Yards | +112 at FanDuel

Jalen Hurts Regular-Season Total Passing TDs: Over/Under 22.5

For this stat, Hurts would need to average about 1.3 passing TDs per game to have this total go over. Again, a pretty low total, but for good reason.

While Hurts came close to hitting the passing yardage total above, he wasn’t close to going over this passing touchdown total. In his 15 starts Hurts threw for 16 touchdowns, barely averaging over 1 per game.

This was another situation in which he was trending even lower if you isolate those final eight games- he threw for a total of six touchdowns in that eight game stretch.

This stat being passing touchdowns specific (as opposed to total TDs, which would include rushing) is a major detriment to this total going over.

While Hurts only threw for 16 TDs, he did rush for ten. He had four separate games in which he rushed for multiple touchdowns, something he only did six times through the air.

This has the biggest impact in the Red Zone, where Hurts is as big of a threat to run for a TD as he is to throw for one. The stats bare this out, too.

Hurts was tied for the most Red Zone rushing attempts for a quarterback, while being all the down at 18th in Red Zone passing attempts.

If this stat were total touchdowns instead of passing specifically, then this would be an over to hammer. But, because it has to be TDs thrown through the air, the under is the play here.

Hurts Total Passing TDs Betting Pick: Under 22.5 TDs | -102 at FanDuel

Jalen Hurts AP NFL Regular Season MVP Odds: +2500

Hurts MVP odds being at +2500 ties him with Derek Carr and Trey Lance for the 12th-best odds to win the MVP. He is one spot behind Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray (+2000) and one spot ahead of Mac Jones, Matt Ryan, and Kirk Cousins (+4000).

While the +2500 odds are pretty juicy, I am not seeing a ton of value here. Looking at the players around Hurts, I like a couple of them over him.

Hurts has not yet shown he can be a plus passing quarterback in the NFL, while he also does not have the dynamic and electric running ability that Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray have. Both Jackson and Murray have significantly stronger arms than Hurts does as well.

The only chance Hurts has to win MVP is if he makes significant improvements as a passer, and the Eagles finish the regular-season as a top-two seed in the NFC. Even one of those things happening unlikely, so counting on both is most likely fools-gold.

I would advise you allocate your bankroll elsewhere.